It may seem contradictory and cruel, but sociology is there to explain what is sometimes not understood or difficult to digest, as is the case of war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and the peace process that maybe he doesn’t want as much or at all. According to sociologist Anna Colin Lebedev, it is no coincidence. “Peace is also very costly for Putin”he maintains. Not only, but internal.
On the eve of the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, which the Kremlin baptized as a “special operation” and which was to last just a few days, the war remains open. Russia was advancing very slowly and consolidating positions, but it has not achieved its strategic military objectives, in addition to . Ukraine resists despite human and material losses. There is no greater motivation than to protect and…
One might think that Russia wants peace as much or more, considering that, for better or worse, it has occupied a part of Ukrainian territory. However, the Kremlin has given no real signs of wanting to negotiate. President Putin has not moved from his “red lines” and, according to Colin Lebedev, the regime is more prepared to prolong the conflict than to assume the political price of stopping it, in the tradition of resisting and sacrificing population.
The great paradox: a war that sustains the Russian economy, despite sanctions
It may seem contradictory and frustrating from a Western point of view, but the war has transformed the Russian economy. According to official data from the Russian Government and the IMF, defense spending has skyrocketed to levels not seen since the Cold War.
The Russian military budget exceeded 6% of GDP in 2024 and about a third of federal public spending, according to figures published by the Russian Ministry of Finance.
The State has reoriented its productive apparatus towards the arms industry. Civilian factories have been converted and Entire regions depend on military contracts. It is difficult to believe that many do not want the war to end, but it is true.
In this context, Colin Lebedev explains that a mass demobilization would mean an economic and social shock that is difficult to manage.
The other side of the coin: the human. Tens of thousands of men have been sent to the front. Western estimates – including those of the British Ministry of Defense – speak of hundreds of thousands of casualties between deaths and injuries from 2022. Moscow does not publish full official figures, but losses are acknowledged even by independent Russian sources.
The political risk of soldiers returning
But the Kremlin, the return of mobilized soldiers is not just a military issue. It is also political. Once home, these combatants could become a factor of instability.
Russia has tightened internal repression and reinforced the patriotic narrative through state media. The isolation from Europe has deepened, both economically and culturally.
According to the Levada Center, one of the few independent demoscopic institutes still operating in Russia, declared support for the “special operation” remains high, but in a tightly controlled media environment.
Negotiations without real progress and an entrenched conflict
The former American president Donald Trump has stated on several occasions that peace is “closer than ever”. However, on the ground there are no signs of substantial progress.
Russia has not withdrawn troops or relaxed its territorial demands. Ukraine, for its part, insists on the recovery of its recognized territorial integrity internationally.
One can talk about a ceasefire or changes in the intensity of the conflict, but not about a structured negotiation process. According to the French sociologist, Moscow has not taken “the slightest step towards concessions”.
Four years later, The war has not only devastated Ukraine. It has also transformed Russia. The economy revolves around the war effort. Domestic politics has tightened. And the country has further distanced itself from its former European partners.
For the Kremlin, stopping the war does not just mean signing an agreement. It involves reconfiguring a system that today depends on conflict to sustain itself. In the words of Anna Colin Lebedev, peace is not free. And for Putin, it may be too expensive.
