Portugal at risk of being one of the EU countries most penalized by new 15% tariff

The effective rate currently charged to Portugal is 8.5% and a new average tariff of 15% imposed by Trump could place our country among the eight most punished EU members.

Portugal could be among the European Union countries most penalized if the United States moves forward with the homogeneous application of a average tariff of 15% on imports of European goods.

According to calculations by economist Eric Dor, from the IÉSEG School of Management, the effective rate currently supported by Portugal is around 8.5%, which would place the country in the group of eight member states with the greatest tariff increase if the new rate is applied without distinction by product.

The measure comes in the context of the new trade policy announced by the Donald Trump administration, which provides for the replacement of tariffs previously rejected by the United States Supreme Court with a global rate of 15%valid for a maximum period of 150 days. Although the White House has guaranteed that it will respect bilateral commitments, the European Commission demands “complete clarity” regarding the practical application of the measure and its real impact on European exports.

The so-called Turnberry Agreement, reached last year, sets a 15% tariff on most EU products exported to the US, with sectoral exceptions, and maintained 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The document also provides for European commitments to purchase energy and direct investment in the United States until 2029. Still, the Effective rate borne by each country varies depending on the composition of its exports, explains .

In the Portuguese case, exports to the North American market are mainly concentrated in chemical products, fuels, machines and devices, plastics and rubber and common metals. You USA is the fourth main destination of Portugal’s foreign sales, with a favorable trade balance, which makes the potential impact of tariffs relevant for several industrial sectors.

Political uncertainty increased this week with the European Parliament’s decision to suspend the ratification process of the Turnberry Agreement, pending additional assurances from Washington. The reevaluation is scheduled for the next few days.