Professor of International Law and New Democracy Member of Parliament Angelos Syrigos outlines the possible scenarios regarding Iranian retaliation on US bases and the possible closure of , its real dilemmas for a change of leadership or a total reshuffle of the regime in Tehran. At the center is the attitude of the Israeli side, but also the question of whether the streets of the Iranian capital will become the catalyst of the developments.
– What can we expect in the coming hours and days based on what has become known about the attack on Iran, both from Iran and the US – Israel
From Iran’s side, we are waiting to see what capabilities it has to respond to the strikes. Either at American bases in the wider region, or against Israel, or by closing the Straits of Hormuz through which 30% of the world’s oil volume and 15% of the volume of liquefied natural gas passes.
From the US and Israel side we are waiting to see what their real goal is. Is America in particular just interested in changing (religious leader) Khamenei? Is he interested in a broader change, ie power passing more to politicians than to religious leaders? Or is he interested in a total change in Iran?
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This is what we will come to if we see what the reaction of the people will be tonight. Because both the USA and the Shah’s son () called for mass demonstrations. Will there be mass protests? Will people take to the streets? How will the regime react if people take to the streets? All this remains to be seen in the next few hours.
– Iran has already hit countries in the region like Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and others in these early hours of the war. What do you see the strategic consequences to be?
With the exception of Qatar, Iran does not have good relations with all these states. It has good relations with Qatar since they cooperate by exploiting a huge natural gas deposit that exists between the 2 countries, in the sea.
Strategically, in the long term the risk is the increase in the price of oil. The UAE is trying to defend itself. They have the military capabilities, I don’t think they would want to get involved in a war against Iran
– Is there, in your estimation, a realistic possibility of regime change through this enterprise, or will it endure, even if weakened?
We now have the following basic question: does America want to follow a Maduro-type model? Do we kick out the ringleader and work with the regime underneath?
Or he wants there to be a total change. In order for there to be a total change, there must also be the person who will lead the total change. Does America think this could be the Shah’s son? Difficult.
– Are Israel and the US on the same page (regarding the business objective)?
Not necessarily. Israel would like Iran to enter a prolonged period of conflict that would weaken it. America, I believe, if it could find an agreement with some change in political leadership, stop the nuclear weapons program, and an agreement on the hydrocarbon issue, that is, to get American companies in, it would come to an agreement.
