Today, Pahlavi’s son claims that it is him that Iranians want to see at the head of the country in the future. “That is the verdict that the people delivered loud and clear in the face of bullets,” he declared, claiming that “large sections” of the security forces had already refused to fire on the population and “whispered their loyalty to him.”
He wants to create history, not write it
Reza Pahlavi’s name with the addition “long live the Shah” was indeed chanted by many protesters from the first days of the protests. Although it is difficult to estimate the extent to which Iranians really support him in the conditions there, polls offer us at least some data. According to Dutch pollster Ammar Maleki in November, about a third of Iranians support Pahlavi, while another third strongly oppose him. Despite this strong polarization of society, his popularity currently exceeds that of any other figure in the Iranian opposition.
However, there are also arguments as to whether he is sufficiently qualified for the position of Iran’s leader, since he has not lived in the country for over forty years. Moreover, the monarchist regime of his father, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown after months of mass demonstrations and complaints of torture and human rights abuses. When journalists asked him about this repressive history, Pahlavi responded clearly: “I am here to create history, not write it.”
Will Iran return to monarchy?
Reza Pahlavi often talks about the “bond between him and the Iranian people”, which has been with him since birth and cannot be broken even in exile. According to the newspaper, this phrase is strikingly reminiscent of his father’s former rhetoric.
When asked whether he would try to defend the monarchy if the Pahlavi family returned to power, he replied that he did not plan to automatically return to it. He built his platform on a vision of a secular, democratic system that would separate religion from the state. If it were up to him, the handover from the old regime would include free elections and referendums to determine the form of the successor government.
Pahlavi is already actively preparing to take over power – he recently published the “Handbook for the emergency phase”, in which he plans in detail the steps for the first six months after the fall of the regime. For the international scene, he proposes the so-called “Cyrus Accords”, which should normalize Iran’s relations with Israel and other Middle Eastern states after the change of government.
We don’t think about him
Although Pahlavi expressed great confidence in US President Donald Trump and believes that he will “keep his word”, the head of the White House is cautious about the possibility that he would take power in Iran. Trump said that the best would be someone popular and living directly in Iran, although Pahlavi is said to be a “nice” person.
“I said that (Pahlavi) seems like a very nice person, but it seems to me that someone who is there and is popular at the moment, if there is such a thing…” Trump did not finish, but indicated that he also meant “those more moderate people”. “Some people like him, but we didn’t think too much about it,” he added to reporters.
According to American analysts, Trump basically does not care who will lead Iran – the key for him is that the new leader is not interested in nuclear weapons and military capabilities to cause damage. According to him, the worst scenario would be if someone “as bad as the previous one” took over the government.
“That could happen. We don’t want that to happen,” the president said. “That would probably be the worst thing: You go through it and then five years later you find out you put someone in there who wasn’t any better. So we’d like to see someone there to give back to the people.”
The opposite of Trump’s wishes
While Reza Pahlavi from American exile talks about secular democracy and Donald Trump warns against the rise of another radical leader, the situation directly in Tehran is developing in a slightly different direction. The most likely candidate for the vacant post of supreme leader is the complete opposite of what the head of the White House would like.
According to the information so far, the key players of the Islamic Republic – including the influential Revolutionary Guards – are uniting in the name of Mojtab Khamenei (56). The second-born son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei has been speculated for more than ten years as his possible successor, but his possible appointment would be extremely sensitive. This is also why, according to several reports, the Iranian leadership is reluctant to officially confirm his name.
The reason is also the security situation. At a time of escalating tensions in the Middle East, the new supreme leader would immediately become a symbolic and real target of attacks, as Israeli officials have already indicated – according to them, the future leader of Iran will be a legitimate target. According to information from foreign media, therefore, Iranian clerics are considering announcing the decision later, when the situation has calmed down. Formally, the successor is decided by the Assembly of Experts – a roughly ninety-member body of high-ranking Shiite clerics.
A man with great behind-the-scenes influence
For many years, Mojtaba Khamenei stayed out of public politics and appeared rather behind the scenes of the regime. Born in 1969, he joined the Revolutionary Guards after high school, where he served during the last phase of the Iran-Iraq War. He later studied theology at a religious center in the city of Kom and led religious seminars there.
However, he has been seen as an important player in Iranian political circles for many years. He gradually became a close associate of his father and regularly appeared at political meetings by his side. According to analysts, he also had a significant influence on the functioning of state television and on the management of the extensive economic background associated with the Khamenei family.
At the same time, reformist politicians associate it with the harsh suppression of protests after the presidential elections in 2009. That’s when mass demonstrations broke out after accusations of election manipulation, and the security forces cracked down very hard on them. At that time, his name appeared among the people who, according to the opposition, were supposed to coordinate the interventions.
A candidate supported by the Revolutionary Guards
According to several analysts, Mojtaba Khamenei has strong support especially in the Revolutionary Guards – one of the most powerful military organizations in Iran. The Guards have a significant influence not only on the army and the security apparatus, but also on a large part of the country’s economy. It is their support that can be decisive in the selection of a new supreme leader.
His close allies include several representatives of the security apparatus and conservative politics. In the past, he was also associated with supporting the presidential candidacy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who became known for his harsh anti-Israel and anti-American attitudes.
Controversial succession scenario
However, his eventual election could cause controversy even in Iran itself. The Islamic Republic was established in 1979 after the fall of the Pahlavi dynasty monarchy, and its ideology is based on the rejection of hereditary rule. If the son of the previous leader became the supreme leader, many critics would see it as a step towards a dynastic system.
His religious authority also raises questions. Although he has acquired the title of ayatollah in recent years (there are currently about 80 in the country), several analysts point out that his theological weight is weaker than that of some other clerical candidates. Nevertheless, he remains one of the most influential behind-the-scenes figures in Iranian politics, and his name appears increasingly in succession discussions.
