The arrest of banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, and the decision of the INSS CPMI to break the banking and tax secrecy of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, increased political pressure on the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The two episodes began to dominate the debate in Brasília and are already being explored by the government and opposition in the narrative dispute about corruption and political responsibility.
In the Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneythis Friday (6), political scientist and partner at Tendências Consultoria, Rafael Corteza assessed that investigations of this type tend to quickly transform into instruments of public debate. The scenario changes when different facts begin to dominate the public debate at the same time, and fuel the political dispute between the government and the opposition.
“This will certainly serve as an instrument for public debate, for the government and opposition to position themselves with the electorate,” said Cortez during the program.
According to Cortez’s reading, the political weight of these investigations depends mainly on the way each side constructs its narrative about the events.
From the government’s point of view, the strategy tends to emphasize the role of control institutions. “On the government’s side, what is the big game? He said: look, the Federal Police went there, found it and is carrying out the entire operation”, said the political scientist.
This approach seeks to convey the idea that possible irregularities are being investigated by the State institutions themselves. The opposition, in turn, tends to explore the topic with another interpretation.
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“The opposition is the opposite, they will give the idea that they will put this together and say: look at how the government, including from the point of view of corruption, did nothing,” said Cortez.
Wear potential
In the assessment presented in the program, investigations and political crises often become inputs for public debate and electoral disputes. “This may appear and add substance to this type of argument,” said the scientist when commenting on how new episodes can be used politically.
Still, Cortez considered that it is too early to predict direct effects on the electoral scenario. “Imagining that the magnitude will be to the point where the opposition wins or the government wins is an illusion, it will require political work”, he stated.
Another highlighted factor is the distance in relation to the electoral calendar. “Not to mention that we are many months away from the election,” he said.
Despite this, the political environment can change quickly if new events of greater impact emerge. “If there is a plea bargain from an important name, this phenomenon will be greater,” he stated.
The assessment, however, is that the political impact of the investigations will depend less on the existence of the cases and more on the ability of the government and opposition to transform these episodes into a public narrative in the coming months.
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The Risk Map, the new policy program for InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.
