The president’s allies link the advance of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) released this Saturday (7) to a moment of sequential negative news for the government. Although the result raised alarm bells, PT and Planalto’s bet is that, if they do their “homework”, the scenario will change during the campaign, when the opposition pre-candidate will be scrutinized.
Under reservation, PT members consider that the opinion collection period, from Tuesday (3) to Thursday (5), took place in the aftermath of Carnival, when in honor of Lula families were portrayed in tin cans, causing a strong reaction. It also included that of the president’s son, Lulinha, and banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Master, about a conversation with the PT member.
“The campaign has not started. When Brazil meets Flávio Bolsonaro, directions must change. And this will be reflected in the conscience and voting options of the Brazilian people”, stated the minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency, .
The survey showed him getting closer to Lula in the first round simulations and technically tied in the second, scoring 43% voting intention compared to 46% for his rival. It was the first Datafolha survey after the senator from Rio de Janeiro was launched by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), as a pre-candidate for the Presidency.
PT’s communications secretary, Éden Valadares, avoids citing specific reasons for Flávio’s advancement, but highlights the current president’s resilience in the survey. “On the one hand, it confirms the climate of polarization that Brazil has experienced in politics for years. On the other, it reaffirms President Lula’s favoritism, as we have been coming for weeks with only a negative agenda, with a bad agenda, and Lula continues to lead against all candidates. It means having the humility to know how to read the research and learn lessons as we still have a lot of homework to do”, he said.
The president of the PT, Edinho Silva, assessed that “the research demonstrates today’s picture” and says that “nothing points” to the consolidation of the current scenario. The leader also cites polarization as the main reason for Flávio’s rise, but considers that Lula “has a lot to show” in terms of deliveries. “Brazil has never experienced such a favorable moment in the last decade,” he said.
The PT member also refers to Flávio’s attempt at moderation, who tries to distance himself from Bolsonaro’s belligerent profile. “It would be naive to believe that Flávio’s ‘good young man’ will not have behind it his father’s fascism, international submission, the destruction of Brazilian democracy, the end of a Brazil with equal opportunities, which fights privileges. This will be the great dispute. Reason will be victorious and President Lula will be the victor”, concluded the PT president.
In the acronym, the order is to avoid giving ammunition to opponents and work for the approval of proposals that can boost the government’s popularity such as the end of the 6×1 scale.
A chief from the center heard by the Sheet made a similar assessment to that of the PT president. He recognizes Flávio’s progress and consolidation, but says it is too early to draw any conclusions about the risk for Lula.
THE RESEARCH
Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters in 137 municipalities from Tuesday (3) to Thursday (5). With a margin of error of plus or minus two points, the survey is registered with the Electoral Court under code BR-03715/2026.
Datafolha tested five scenarios for the first round election and seven for the second round. Lula remains ahead in all of them, but his advantage is falling.
In today’s most likely scenario, Lula has 38% compared to Flávio’s 32%. Ratinho Jr (PSD) comes next with 7% and the governor of Minas, Romeu Zema (Novo), with 4%. Then come , and Aldo Rebelo (DC), with 2%. 11% reject all candidates, and 3% say they don’t know who to vote for.
