(Bloomberg) — Hours after Donald Trump threatened to expand attacks on Iran and hit Beijing’s strategic partner “very hard,” China’s top diplomat took the stage in front of the world’s press and declared that this could be a decisive year for relations between the US and China.
“When both sides treat each other with sincerity and good faith,” said Foreign Minister Wang Yi, both powers can “make 2026 a landmark year for the sound, stable and sustainable development of China-US relations.”
Sunday’s statement represents the clearest signal yet that Beijing intends to protect its relationship with Washington from the US-led attack, despite maintaining a strengthened partnership with Tehran, signed by Wang himself just five years ago.
Beijing is also vulnerable to growing instability in the Middle East. Disruptions to the region’s oil production and transportation have sent energy prices soaring. Furthermore, instability in Iran, which accounted for about 13% of China’s seaborne oil imports, undermines Beijing’s efforts to diversify its supply.
In his important annual address on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress, Wang called for a ceasefire and lamented the conflict as a war that “should never have happened.” However, he suggested that the hostilities would not affect Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s plan to host President Trump during his visit to China from March 31 to April 2.
“The importance of stabilizing and improving relations between China and the US cannot be underestimated,” said Zhu Junwei, executive director of Horizon Insights Center, a think tank independent based in Beijing. “What happens in Iran and across the Middle East is unlikely to destabilize relations between China and the US or cause the summit to be cancelled.”
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Even before the press conference, there were signs that both sides were preparing a possible agreement for leaders to announce, including important trade agreements. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to meet next weekend in Paris to lay the groundwork for such an agreement.
Wang’s apparent restraint on Iran reflected a calculated bet that strengthening relations with the world’s largest economy takes priority as Beijing faces slower domestic growth and growing global resistance to its exports. A successful summit could result in the extension of the tariff truce and the stabilization of the external environment for trade, which accounted for nearly a third of the country’s economic expansion last year.
“Beijing has a greater interest in maintaining détente with Washington than in protecting Tehran or Caracas,” said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group and a former American diplomat. He was referring to China’s response to the previous US move to detain Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, another partner of Beijing, in his country.
This calculation carries a potential reputational cost. China defends its Global Security Initiative as a better framework than what it criticizes as the law of the jungle and Washington’s interventionist approach. China’s lack of meaningful support for its allies risks undermining the very message that China offers a credible alternative to American power.
“The recent global conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and now Iran prove the limitations of the Chinese vision,” Chan said, adding that Beijing “will need to develop a more robust toolkit than the Global Security Initiative (GSI) if it is to provide security guarantees, however precarious, to partner countries.”
Beijing has tried to fill this credibility gap with rhetoric. On Sunday, Wang described China as the guardian of a rules-based world — the counterbalance to what he called a “might makes right” approach, in an apparent reference to U.S. foreign policy.
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Asked whether Beijing supported the idea of a G2 — a world jointly run by Washington and Beijing — Wang rejected the formulation, insisting that the world could not be “governed only by great powers” and advocated for more nations to have a say.
But Beijing’s tolerance for compromise does not extend to its own backyard.
Wang reiterated Beijing’s claim on Taiwan and warned that any attempt at independence for self-governing democracy is “doomed to failure.” The comments came at a time when cross-Strait tensions remain a flashpoint that could ultimately prove far more destabilizing to U.S.-China relations than the conflict with Iran.
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“Resolving the Taiwan issue and realizing the complete reunification of our motherland is a historic process that cannot be stopped,” Wang said. “Those who support him are on the right side of history and those who defy him will perish.”
Xi Jinping raised the issue of Taiwan in a phone call with Trump last month, when he urged the US to handle arms sales to Taipei with the “utmost caution.” Washington approved arms sales to Taiwan worth up to $11.15 billion last year — one of the largest in its history — in a bid to strengthen the island’s defenses.
Underscoring Beijing’s sensitivity toward the island — which Wang called “the core of China’s fundamental interests” — the foreign minister reiterated blunt statements, warning Tokyo against any interference. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi angered Beijing in November by suggesting that Tokyo could mobilize its military if China used force to try to take Taiwan.
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Josef Gregory Mahoney, professor of international relations at East China Normal University in Shanghai, said the summit could be threatened by a further deterioration of the situation in Iran — particularly if the U.S. blames China for its problems there — or by Washington’s actions toward Taiwan.
“If we see further provocations related to Taiwan, including the possibility of a new $20 billion arms sale to Taipei,” he said, “then we may consider the meeting in jeopardy.”
— Colum Murphy, Lucille Liu, Jing Li, Josh Xiao and Nectar Gan.
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