The geopolitical chessboard now reminds her of an equation with many unknowns, where one conflict feeds the next. Thus, while the eyes of the international community are focused on the strikes against it, a deeper and more complex strategy is unfolding on the border with it. According to sources with full knowledge of his operational plans, officials in Tel Aviv have already made up their minds: the campaign against her will be “time-consuming.”
As they inform allies and enemies alike, the confrontation with the Shiite Muslim organization is not the “monitoring” of the front with Iran, but an autonomous operation, which will continue, even when the guns fall silent with the Islamic Republic, the direct confrontation with which aims to deconstruct its nuclear and ballistic capabilities and is estimated to last a few weeks.
Understandably, the Lebanon front is seen as an “existential impasse”, which requires much more time to close.
The “variable” Trump and the diplomatic thriller
Washington’s stance remains the critical regulator. On Monday, US President Donald Trump attempted to muddy the waters, saying operations were progressing “ahead of schedule” and were “almost complete”. However, the reality on the ground and briefings to Arab diplomats suggest otherwise.
Israel is brutal, but it is also deeply fragile. Most of its attacks target civilian infrastructure.
The Israeli army now says it will continue striking facilities linked to the Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association in Lebanon.
– Ramy Abdu| Rami Abdu (@RamAbdu)
“The Israelis are preparing the international players for the prospect that the war with Hezbollah will drag on for a long time, even surviving a possible cease-fire with Tehran,” notes an Arab diplomat, who is cited in an exclusive report by . The message is clear: the return of displaced Israelis to the North is non-negotiable and will not be achieved by half measures.
The X-Ray of the Invasion: Engineers, Fortifications and the Silence of the Lebanese Army
In South Lebanon, the image conveyed by UNIFIL forces and eyewitnesses is revealing. It’s not just about raids, it’s about a gradual installation.
- Fortifications: Israeli engineering forces are carrying out works at least one kilometer deep inside Lebanon, creating infrastructure that suggests a long-term stay.
- The power vacuum: The country’s official military has withdrawn from nearly all of its positions along the “Blue Line.” Residents of border villages describe scenes of military convoys abandoning their posts as IDF forces expand their control over at least 12 strategic points.
- The Israeli dilemma: Despite the mobilization of tens of thousands of reservists, the army has not yet advanced to the “second and third lines” of the villages, as it did in 2024. The reason? “Air supremacy” is channeled – as a matter of priority – to the front with Iran, forcing forces in Lebanon into a “controlled tension” tactic, until resources are freed up.
Hezbollah’s “fatal mistake” and the day after
The escalation was triggered by Hezbollah’s decision to respond to the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with a barrage of rockets. “Hezbollah made a fatal mistake,” says an Israeli military official.
BREAKING:
An Israeli Merkava tank exploded with ammunition inside after being targeted by Hezbollah in Khiam, southern Lebanon.
Clashes are still ongoing.
— Current Report (@Currentreport1)
Since then, more than 600 targets have been leveled, causing the region’s biggest humanitarian crisis since 2024.
The “wedge” in the Bekaa Valley
The possible transfer of the war to the Bekaa Valley constitutes the “Plan B” of the Israeli leadership. This region is Hezbollah’s strategic lung, as it is the conduit for the supply of weapons from Syria and Iran.
Israel strikes building of Al-Qard al-Hasan foundation in Beirut
According to media reports, the organization is formally a charitable financial institution, but Israel and the United States have long described it as a key financial arm of Hezbollah.
The strike is reportedly…
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv)
A ground operation there would mean that Israel is no longer aiming just to protect its borders, but to completely cut off the organization from its allies, a move that could keep the front open for months, if not years.
The conclusion belongs to the head of the Israeli army, Eyal Zamir: “This will take time. You must be prepared. Whatever it takes, we’ll do it.” For Tel Aviv, time is no longer an enemy, but a tool to permanently change the security map in the Middle East.
The Geography of Conflict – What is the “Blue Line”
The “Blue Line” is not an official international border, but a withdrawal line drawn by the UN in 2000, after the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon.
- The regime: It stretches for 120 kilometers and is monitored by the UNIFIL peacekeeping force.
- The “Dead Zone”: According to Security Council Resolution 1701, the area between the Blue Line and the Litani River should be free of armed elements, except for the Lebanese army and the UN.
- Today’s diversion: The presence of Hezbollah and the creation of Israeli strongholds within this zone signal a complete breakdown of past agreements.
Military balance – IDF vs Hezbollah
The showdown is not conventional, but a clash between one of the world’s most technologically advanced armies and the most powerful non-state military entity on the planet.
