The president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears technically tied with the senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and with the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)in possible second-round disputes for Palácio do Planalto. That’s what it shows Medium/Idea research released this Wednesday (11).
In the scenario against Flávio, Lula appears with 47,4% of voting intentions, while the senator registers 45,3%configuring a technical draw. Blank or invalid votes are 4,1%. Don’t know or didn’t answer, add 3,2%.
In a dispute against Tarcísio, the president would have 46,4% and the governor of São Paulo, 44,8%. Despite being listed for the presidential raceTarcísio has stated that he intends to run for re-election in São Paulo. Blank or invalid votes are 5,5%. Don’t know or didn’t answer, add 3,3%.
The survey also simulated direct disputes against governors Romeu Zema (Novo)from Minas Gerais; Ratinho Junior (PSD)from Paraná; Eduardo Leite (PSD)from Rio Grande do Sul; Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)from Goiás; beyond the businessman Renan Santos (Mission)and the former minister Aldo Rebelo (DC).
In all these scenarios, Lula appears ahead of potential opponents (see below).
Lula x Romeo Zema
Lula x Ratinho Jr.
Lula x Eduardo Leite
Lula x Ronaldo Caiado
Lula x Renan Santos
Lula x Aldo Rebelo
Methodology
They were heard 1,500 votersbetween the days March 6th and 10ththrough . The margin of error is 2.5 percentage pointsmore or less. The confidence level is 95%. The research was registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the protocol BR-00386/2026.
See the full survey
