Datafolha research shows that Lula government ministers score better than names associated with the right, in 2 scenarios
Datafolha research on Tuesday (10.mar.2026) shows that the Minister of Finance, (PT), and the vice-president (PSB) lead the dispute for the Senate in São Paulo. Ministers from the president’s government (PT) score better than names associated with the right.
In October, voters will vote for 2 names for the Senate, which will be renewed in 2/3. Datafolha tested 2 scenarios for the dispute, each with 10 possible candidates.
In the 1st scenario, without Alckmin, Haddad is ahead with 30% of voting intentions. Then, other ministers from the Lula government appear – (MDB), with 25%, (PSB), with 20%, (Rede), with 18%, and (Psol), with 14%.
Among the right-wing pre-candidates, the best positioned are the federal deputies (PP), with 14% of voting intentions, and (Novo), with 13%.
Then appear the federal deputies (Solidarity), with 10%, and (PL) – supported by the former first lady (PL) –, with 7%. State deputy Gil Diniz (PL) – who was an advisor to the former deputy (PL) – has 3% of voting intentions.
Another 4% say they don’t know who they will vote for in the 1st place, while 15% say they intend to vote blank or null. For the 2nd wave, 6% are undecided, and 21% say they will vote blank or null.
In the 2nd scenario tested by Datafolha, without Haddad, Alckmin leads with 31% of voting intentions for the Senate. He is followed by ministers Tebet, with 25%, Marina, with 21%, França, with 20%, and Boulos, with 15%. Then come Salles and Derrite, both with 13%, Paulinho da Força, with 9%, Rosana Valle, with 6%, and Gil Diniz, with 3%.
In this scenario, another 4% say they do not know who they will vote for in the 1st place, while 14% say they intend to vote blank or null. For the 2nd wave, 6% are undecided, and 20% say they will vote blank or null.
The Datafolha survey was carried out from March 3 to 5, 2026. There were 1,608 interviews throughout the State of São Paulo, distributed in 71 municipalities, with a population aged 16 or over. The maximum margin of error for the total sample is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, within the 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under numbers BR-06798/2026 and SP-04136/2026.
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