Fuel prices are expected to rise again next Monday, with increases that could be around 10 cents per liter. The most recent forecasts indicate that both diesel and gasoline could become significantly more expensive, at a time when oil has returned to value in international markets. According to , the estimates released this Friday take into account the evolution of Brent prices until the close of trading on Thursday.
According to the same publication, a source from the National Association of Fuel Dealers (Anarec) indicated that diesel should increase by around 10 cents per liter. Gasoline could rise a little more, with a forecast pointing to around 10.5 cents.
During the morning, the first forecasts released pointed to slightly smaller increases. However, the most recent update ended up confirming that the increase may be more significant than initially estimated.
Oil puts pressure on prices again
This new increase comes at a time when oil continues to appreciate in international markets. This movement ends up directly reflecting on the prices of fuel sold to consumers. According to the publication, Brent, a reference for the European market, was once again trading above US$100 per barrel. This psychological level usually immediately impacts price forecasts for diesel and gasoline.
In this Friday’s session, Brent for delivery in May rose to US$ 102.54 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, a reference for the North American market, rose to US$ 97.53. According to the website Notícias ao Minuto, this appreciation explains the pressure that continues to be felt on prices charged at gas stations.
Government maintains compensation mechanism
Given the expected increase, the Government has already guaranteed that the tax compensation mechanism will remain in force if the increases exceed a certain limit. According to Notícias ao Minuto, the Minister of the Presidency, António Leitão Amaro, stated that the executive sees no need to change the regime currently in application.
The government official was speaking at the end of the Council of Ministers meeting held on Thursday, where he highlighted that the system created by the government continues to respond to price developments. As he explained, the mechanism provides for the refund of part of the taxes whenever the increase exceeds 10 cents per liter. The intention is to ensure that the State does not directly benefit from rising fuel prices.
In practice, when this limit is exceeded, a discount on fuel tax is applied, which partially offsets the increase recorded in the market.
ISP discount remains in effect
The executive had already announced last week a temporary reduction in the Tax on Petroleum and Energy Products applied to road diesel on the continent. According to the publication, this reduction corresponds to 3.55 cents per liter and was presented as an extraordinary measure to respond to the worsening cost of fuel. The decision came after the Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, signaled the possibility of applying a temporary discount on the ISP if the increase exceeded 10 cents per liter.
Still on Thursday, Antonio Leitão Amaro recalled that the mechanism was announced right at the beginning of the new escalation of tension associated with the conflict in Iran. The minister also left a warning in the political debate about the cost of living, arguing that the measures should protect consumers without creating distortions in the market.
According to the government official, predictability is essential to guarantee stability in policies related to fuels and avoid hasty decisions. According to Notícias ao Minuto, the objective of the mechanism is precisely to ensure that the State does not collect additional revenue when prices rise.
If the forecasts are confirmed, next Monday could bring another significant increase in fuel prices. Even so, the final values always depend on the commercial decisions of oil companies and stations.
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