The pre-campaign identified an increase in attacks against the senator on social media in recent weeks, amid the rise of the former president’s son in electoral polls. The strategy, for now, is to continue to “play still”, without “talking” with the president () and his allies.
Members of the PT and Lula’s base expect Flávio to collapse in the polls with the intensification of attacks against him, as the . , at the end of last month, PT president, Edinho Silva, called for an offensive against the senator in a speech to party leaders, demanding mobilization of PT activists.
So far, the attacks on the senator have been measured. In political circles, the assessment is that the president’s pre-campaign considered Flávio an opponent who was easier to defeat than the governor of São Paulo, . Therefore, the strategy would be to spare Bolsonaro’s son until the beginning of April — the maximum deadline, according to electoral law, for Tarcísio to leave office to run for Planalto.
In recent months, however, the news cycle has been negative, with the Master case, which damaged the image of the Federal Supreme Court, and with Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, in the investigations into the INSS fraud scandal.
Since the announcement of his pre-candidacy until the present moment, electoral surveys of voting intentions for Flávio. In the first round scenarios tested by Datafolha at the beginning of March, the senator appears behind Lula by five or six points. In the second round, they are technically tied – the president has 46% and the senator, 43%.
Professor of political communication at the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation, Beto Vasques assesses that the second round scenario was anticipated in an atypical way. He considers that, although the rates of voting intentions for Flávio have grown, so has his rejection.
In December, according to Datafolha, Bolsonaro’s son was rejected by 38% of voters. , at the beginning of the month, this percentage rose to 45%.
“Due to the increase in Flávio’s rejection, nothing enables us to say that he is on an upward curve. He is anticipating a potential vote that we expected to see in September, but it is along with the rejection”, says Vasques, who has accumulated a series of electoral campaigns in his career.
Monitoring the senator’s surroundings in recent weeks has identified an increase in negative mentions on the networks, with terms such as “rachadinha” and “Bolsomaster”, seeking to link the Bolsonarist group to the scandal at Daniel Vorcaro’s bank.
A pre-campaign member told the report that these mentions are restricted to the PT bubble and that, as the PT is speaking to converts, they do not demand a response.
Bolsonaro’s son has bet on presenting himself as the moderate version of his father to win over independent voters, who must decide the next elections.
This same member says he believes that the issue of corruption is negative for the left, due to the history of the Mensalão and Lava Jato, and that the president will not be successful in exploiting it against Flávio.
For him, the cases for which the senator was investigated – and alleged money laundering through real estate and a chocolate store – are old, known to voters, and should not have a significant impact.
Flávio was denounced in November 2020 by the Attorney General’s Office of Rio de Janeiro, but the investigations were closed after the STF (Supreme Federal Court) and the STJ (Superior Court of Justice) collected evidence. He has always denied the accusations.
On social media, Lula’s allies suggest that the senator’s growth in the polls occurs because the president’s pre-campaign is not yet at full steam. The federal deputy, for example, told his followers not to worry about these surveys. “When we start to get down on Flávio, he’s going to melt,” he wrote in X.
President of the PP and Flávio’s ally, senator Ciro Nogueira tells Sheet who considers it difficult for Bolsonaro’s son to become dehydrated. “In 2022, the feeling was that people voted for Lula to defeat Bolsonaro. Now, people will vote for Flávio to defeat Lula.”
For him, there is wear and tear in relation to the material that the president can explore in the campaign. “They bet everything on [ampliar a isenção do] Income Tax and there was no electoral effect.”
The senator also agrees with the assessment that past investigations against Flávio will not have a major impact. “This is something that has been overcome. It’s like saying that Lula is going to be overthrown with a monthly fee or a petrolão. Unless they have new things. I think it’s much worse for Lula, with the issue of his son.”
Professor and strategist Beto Vasques assesses that Flávio rose in the polls for two reasons. Firstly, because he managed to consolidate himself as the right-wing candidate. Secondly, because he “played unmarked”, that is, without being targeted by the PT’s artillery.
“With the appointment, Flávio will get worse, obviously. But how much [vai piorar] if it remains to be seen. He’s going to have to spend a lot of energy dribbling,” says Vasques. “Today he goes from studio to blogger studio, television program, events. Now you’ll have to spend part of your time responding.”
For the professor, Flávio may be confronted with issues from his family past and his lack of management experience.
On the other hand, Vasques states that qualitative research over the last five years indicates that independent voters, who are essential in the next election, are waiting for a final and unappealable process to find a politician effectively guilty.
In this sense, the shelving of the cases against the senator should alleviate the effect of the attacks involving the “rachadinha” case. “This stamp becomes fragile. In the same way with Lula, when the trial [na Lava Jato] was disregarded.”
