It is bracing for a possible wave of refugees fleeing war in , according to four immigration ministers, and hopes the rules it has worked on for nearly a decade will stand up to the challenge.
More than a million people sought asylum in Europe in 2015, many of them fleeing the civil war in Syria, and Europe’s effort to respond revealed deep divisions within the Union.
The EU then spent years in difficult negotiations to reform the policy, allowing for a more equal distribution of migrants between countries and speeding up deportations of rejected asylum seekers.
Just weeks before those rules go into effect, escalating violence has raised the possibility of an early test of the new system.
Violence in the Middle East shows no signs of abating, two weeks after the start of US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Tehran has launched its own attacks in the region, including in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, while Israel says it will expand its attacks into Lebanon.
19 million displaced in the Middle East
In addition to the hundreds of dead, hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to leave their homes. The International Organization for Migration’s regional director for the Middle East, Othman Belbeisi, said Thursday that Lebanon is now approaching one million displaced people.
There are currently no signs of large numbers of people leaving the region for Europe to escape the violence, according to the UN and the International Organization for Migration. However, in a region wracked by years of conflict, the conditions for mass displacement are already in place: before the war even began, some 19 million people in the Middle East were already displaced.
In a report written before the war, the European asylum agency warned that in Iran, a country of 90 million people, “even partial destabilization could trigger refugee movements of unprecedented magnitude.” “We’ll see how things develop if the EU’s immigration policy comes under pressure again,” Dutch Immigration Minister Bart van den Brink told POLITICO on the sidelines of a meeting of immigration ministers in Brussels last week.
However, he appeared optimistic, saying that “there is now much greater solidarity and a better climate between the member states” since the new immigration pact was agreed, and that “the mood for cooperation is much greater” now that immigration is so high on the political agenda.
The Pact on Migration and Asylum
The European Union’s Migration and Asylum Pact, the result of years of negotiations, is expected to enter into force on June 12 and introduces stricter procedures for examining asylum applications at borders, special measures in crisis situations and support mechanisms for the countries receiving the most migrants through financial aid or refugee resettlement.
Overall, the new EU Pact aims to improve solidarity between states, faster and more organized management of asylum applications and better preparation for crises, while the issue of managing potential mass migration flows and stabilizing trust between member states remains open.
The new rules reflect the EU’s progress since the 2015 crisis, when around one million people, mostly from Syria, sought asylum in Europe, exposing sharp divisions between member states.
The experience of 2015 served as a cautionary lesson: front-line countries such as Greece were heavily criticized for their handling of the crisis, while some states reinstated border controls and delayed the implementation of relocation plans. The EU has strengthened partnerships with third countries such as Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and Lebanon to manage migration flows, but it has taken years to find an agreement that satisfies both frontline countries and domestic member states.
Despite the introduction of new rules, trust between states remains fragile and the possibility of mass displacements will test the effectiveness of the measures. Criticism is being voiced about the detention and deportation of rejected asylum seekers to countries with which they have no ties, while the risk of member states closing borders in the event of mass flows remains.
Political changes have also been affected by the rise of far-right anti-immigration parties in Europe, with centrist governments taking a tougher stance on immigration.
