Document increases expectations for interest rates, which went from 12.25% to 12.50%; dollar remained at R$ 5.40
The , released by the Central Bank this Monday (23.Mar.2026), raised the projection for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index), which measures inflation, from 4.10% of the previous week to 4.17% in 2026. 4 weeks ago, the estimate was 3.91%. Read (PDF – 785 kB).
Despite the increase, expectations for this year’s inflation remain within the tolerance range of the target defined by the CMN (National Monetary Council). The center of the target is 3%, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down. Thus, the floor is 1.5% and the ceiling is 4.5%.
According to the report, the projection for the exchange rate in 2026 was maintained at R$5.40. The estimate for the Selic rate rose from 12.25% to 12.50%, while the expectation for GDP increased from 1.83% to 1.84%.
For 2027, the market maintained inflation projections at 3.80%, GDP growth at 1.80% and Selic at 10.50%. The estimate for the dollar, on the other hand, fell from R$5.47 to R$5.45.
FOCUS BULLETIN
The Focus bulletin is published weekly by the Central Bank and brings together projections from financial market institutions for indicators such as inflation, exchange rate, interest rates and economic activity. The report presents the median of the estimates collected by the monetary authority.
