The president (PT) surpasses the senator (PL) among voters self-identified as centrist in the first round scenarios tested earlier this month for the Presidency of the Republic.
These voters without prior adherence to PT or Bolsonarism could be decisive in the October election, which should be fierce.
On a scale of 1 to 7, Datafolha asks the interviewee to answer which political position they would place themselves in, with 1 being the maximum on the left and 7 being the maximum on the right. The center voter therefore corresponds to number 4.
In the scenarios tested by the institute with the presence of Lula and Flávio and without Ratinho Junior —who announced on Monday (23) the withdrawal of his candidacy—, the PT member appears in front.
In the first of them, Lula has 31% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio, with 17%. Romeu Zema (Novo) appears with 9%, and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with 6%.
The margin of error in this center group is five percentage points, plus or minus. The research was carried out from March 3 to 5, 2026, with 2,004 interviews throughout Brazil, distributed among 137 municipalities, with a population aged 16 and over. The survey is registered with the TSE under code BR-03715/2026.
in the general survey, with the entire electorate, Lula is also ahead of Flávio in the first round scenarios, by five or six percentage points. In this case, the margin of error is two points, plus or minus.
In the spontaneous survey, when Datafolha does not mention the names of possible candidates, 15% of voters self-identified as centrist say they intend to vote for Lula for president, while 2% mention Flávio and another 2%.
In the second round between Lula and Flávio, the president has 41% of voting intentions among the center group, and the senator, with 32% – they are technically tied. Another 24% say they intend to vote blank, and 3% don’t know.
In the survey with the entire electorate, both in the second round simulation, but with a smaller numerical difference. Bolsonaro’s son scores 43%, compared to the president’s 46%.
Datafolha also asked each interviewee which number they fit into, considering a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is a Bolsonarista and 5, a PT member. Thus, the voter who identifies as number 3 is not aligned with either pole.
In the first round scenarios tested by the institute, Lula and Flávio are technically tied among this electorate, with the president numerically ahead by between seven and ten percentage points. The margin of error in this group is also five percentage points, plus or minus.
The two are also tied in the second round simulation. The president has 40% of voting intentions among voters who do not identify as Bolsonaro or PT supporters, while Bolsonaro’s son has 35%. Another 23% say they intend to vote blank, and 2% don’t know.
Lula and Flávio are still technically tied in terms of rejection, which projects that independent voters will choose not the ideal candidate, but the least worst candidate.
Among voters who self-identify as centrist (number four on the scale from left to right), 45% say they would not vote at all for Lula in the first round, while 51% say the same for Flávio.
The respective percentages are 48% and 50%, considering voters who do not identify as Bolsonarists or PT members (number three on this scale).
Professor of political science at USP, Sérgio Simoni says that the numbers indicate an advantage for Lula among the centrist electorate, but considers that it is necessary to be careful with the interpretation of the data.
“Sometimes [o entrevistado] places center, but it is not exactly the same meaning that we attribute [para o termo]. When [o Datafolha] also ask [no contexto da] scale between PT and Bolsonarists, allows for a more nuanced scenario”, he states.
Regardless of voting intention, the majority of voters who find themselves in the middle of the two scales say they prefer that most of the next president’s actions are different from Lula’s. 79% of those interviewed who self-identify as centrist agree with this statement, and 81% of those who do not position themselves as Bolsonarists or PT members.
POLARIZATION
Bolsonaristas and PT members represent almost identical segments of the electorate, the research shows – each group represents just over a third.
On a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 being a Bolsonarist and 5 being a PT member, 19% of those interviewed position themselves as number 3, not associated with any of the poles. Another 7% place themselves as number 2 on the scale, and 9%, as number 4. At the top, there are 28% of voters identified at most as Bolsonarists, and another 28%, as PT members.
In recent years, there has been no percentage variation in the two groups beyond the margin of error.
Simoni states that the data indicates that there is in fact a crystallized division between PT and Bolsonarists, but considers that it can be disputed. “More than a third of voters position themselves either in the middle, or, even if tending to one side, do not strongly identify with [com nenhum dos lados]”, it says.
On the scale from 1 to 7, from the maximum on the left to the maximum on the right, respectively, 15% of respondents place themselves at number 1, 17% at number 4, and 29% at number 7. The rest are divided between the remaining positions, in a balanced way.
For Simoni, the large percentage of voters who consider themselves to be the most right-wing cannot be interpreted as an indication of radicalism.
“Traditionally, the right has a higher level than the left. Even at times when Lula was at his peak, like when he won the 2002 election.”
The professor states that, according to one of the interpretations of this advantage, voters may not attribute the same meaning as academics to the terms left or right.
ROOT PROFILE
The research also allows us to trace the profile of Bolsonarista, PT and centrist voters.
The root Bolsonarista is male, lives in the South, Central-West or North regions, is white, evangelical and prefers the PL.
The main PT member is a woman, over 60 years old, completed primary education, earns up to two minimum wages, lives in the Northeast, is retired and Catholic.
The voter disassociated from PT and Bolsonarism, in turn, has the following profile: male, between 16 and 24 years old, student, with higher education, no preferred party, no religion and resident of the Southeast region.
Communications intern Fernanda Rabello, 22, is part of the group. “I’m a center, because I believe it’s possible to have benefits for society on both sides, with one mediating the other”, he says. “I haven’t decided who to vote for president, it’s still early. I think the country’s biggest problem is class disparity: people who have a lot of wealth and people who don’t have anything to eat.”
