The risk of a land offensive by the United States scared markets this Monday (30), causing global prices to soar and reach unprecedented levels in history
The price of oil approached the US$115 per barrel this Monday (30), consolidating what experts already point out as the biggest monthly increase in decades. The advance comes amid worsening conflict in the Middle Eastwith the Brent reaching $117 and the WTI surpassing US$100. The movement reflects the uncertainties in global markets after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz ea possibility of a land invasion of the United States on Iranian territory.
US President Donald Trump declared in an interview with the Financial Times that he is considering a military operation to take control of the island of Khargo Iran’s main oil export terminal. Trump compared the strategy to intervention in Venezuela and stated that the objective is to “take the oil”.
Market analysts such as Tamas Varga of PVM Energy warn that a ground invasion or Tehran’s outright retaliation against energy infrastructure could drive the price of a barrel to unprecedented levels.
“If the United States launches a ground invasion of Iran, possibly taking the island of Kharg, or if Tehran intensifies retaliatory bombings against energy infrastructure or completely closes the Strait (of Hormuz), projections of $200 per barrel of oil will no longer be an out-of-this-world assumption,” he said.
The price of oil never exceeded US$ 150 per barrela record set in July 2008, but the price of Brent of the North Sea increased by almost 60% since the beginning of the war, at the end of February, and the WTI, almost 30%.
Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s fuels. Currently, only ships from countries allied with Tehran are allowed passage. The impact is already felt with the fuel shortages in Asia e strong volatility on the Stock Exchanges around the world.
Attacks continue
While the financial market reacts, the conflict remains intense. Kuwait accused Iran this Monday (30) of reach a desalination plant e energy. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, intercepted five ballistic missiles. In the Iranian country, Israeli bombings caused blackouts in the capitalTehran.
Israel too intensified attacks against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, resulting in more than 1,200 deaths since the beginning of March and the death of a UN soldier (UNIFIL).
O Pakistan has acted as a mediatorhosting ministers from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Egypt in Islamabad to seek a ceasefire. However, the Iranian government classified American diplomacy as a “smoke screen”citing the deployment of 3,500 US Marines to the region.
Despite the tension, President Trump said he maintained confidence in a , although the deployment of military resources and threats of invasion indicate a uncertainty scenario for global energy supplies in the coming weeks.
*With information from AFP
