“The pace of fighting on the front is really increasing thanks to the improving weather conditions,” military expert Viktor Kevluk commented for i. According to him, the spring weather also plays its role – the soil hardens, the visibility for drones improves and it is possible to use heavy equipment more actively.
Experts expect that the more the trees turn green, the more Russian attempts at lightning breakthroughs will intensify. According to Kevluk, the attack near Lyman was the biggest in the given section in the last year, but according to him, it does not yet mean the beginning of the Russian spring offensive. He thinks that it will probably start in May and the Russians will regroup in the next few weeks.
Will the Russians conquer all of Donbas by the end of the year?
According to analysts, it is unlikely that the Russians would succeed in conquering the entire defense belt between the cities of Kosťantynivka and Sloviansk this year. They note that Russian forces have so far not demonstrated the ability to quickly encircle or seize cities that are similar in size to defensive line cities.
Nearby Pokrovsk, which had approximately 60,000 inhabitants before the war, was conquered by the Russians for almost two years. For comparison, industrial Kramatorsk had approximately 150,000 inhabitants before the war.
At this point, however, it should be added that the cities of the northern part of the Donetsk region may find themselves under more intense fire as a result of the approaching front, and the war will hit the civilian population living there even harder.
Domestic politicians are already starting to prepare the Russian public for slow progress accompanied by high losses. ISW points, for example, to the statements of the chairman of the parliamentary defense committee, Andrej Kartapolov. He admitted that the battles for Kostântynivka are complicated, while the Russian advance is made more difficult by the size of the city and the built Ukrainian fortifications.
Analysts point out that this may also be the reason why the Kremlin uncompromisingly insists on the withdrawal of the northern part of the Donetsk region – in order to save personnel and material resources, which may be deprived of it by the tough battles for the given territory.
The Ukrainians slowed down the Russians on one of the sections
In the meantime, the Ukrainians began to “employ” the Russians on another section of the front in the Zaporozhye region, where they managed to slow down the Russian advance.
According to ISW, Ukrainian forces in the south have made significant tactical gains since the end of January. They managed to liberate more territory than the Russian troops occupied during the whole of February. The fact that the Russian army lost part of an important connection also contributed to the success. SpaceX blocked unverified terminals of the Starlink network in Ukraine, which mainly affected Russian forces using this technology in the occupied territories without official registration.
American analyst Rob Lee points out that Ukrainian successes can have several reasons.
One of them is that although the Russians can move thanks to the so-called infiltration tactics, this procedure does not mean full control over the territory. Adverse weather also seems to have played a role – it is true that bad weather complicates the use of drones, which gives an advantage to the attacking side. According to the analyst, the Ukrainians also sent trained assault brigades to Oleksandrivka.
“These are the most elite units that simultaneously carried out offensive operations in several areas and thereby created problems for the Russian army. When Ukraine concentrates its forces and has time to prepare the operation, it can achieve success and push out the Russian troops,” he evaluated for the website.
Security guarantees? Only after the war, says Washington
While Russian bombs and drones in the Donetsk region are ravaging the towns and villages there, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are talking to each other through the media about security guarantees for Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi pointed out that Washington is ready to provide security guarantees to Kyiv only after Ukraine withdraws from Donbass. Rubio called Zelensky’s words a lie. According to him, the USA did not want Ukraine to give up its territory, but they reminded Kyiv that security guarantees can only be valid after the war is finally over.
“What are security guarantees? Soldiers who are willing to step in and guarantee security. If you do this now, it means you are engaging in war. He was told very clearly and he should understand that security guarantees come only after the war is over,” Rubio.
The withdrawal of troops from Donbass is ultimately required by Russia. In this context, the Ukrainian president says, for example, that if the Ukrainian army were to withdraw from Donbas, the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, would save hundreds of thousands of soldiers for further offensive operations.
“What does the Kremlin want? I think that nothing has changed. The Kremlin wants to acquire the Donbas fortified belt without a fight. It is a totally unacceptable demand, which openly demonstrates that Russia, the Russian army, the Kremlin, Putin are not going to stop the war. They need a new, strong fortress from which they could calmly attack Zaporozhye and the Dnipro,” commented a Russian political scientist living in the Czech Republic Ivan Preobrazhenskyi.
Putin wants the oligarchs to contribute as well
So far, Moscow has given no indication that it plans to end the fighting. According to a Russian independent website, Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, organized a closed meeting with Russian oligarchs at which he asked them for help in financing war expenses. The Russian economy is finding it increasingly difficult to tighten the war cylinder.
“They said we will fight,” one of the daily’s sources described the essence of Putin’s speech. “We will go to the borders of Donbas,” added another. According to both sources, Putin subsequently called on businessmen to voluntarily contribute to the budget. According to The Bell’s source, the CEO of Rosneft, Igor Sečin, came up with the idea of asking for money from businesses.
But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that either Putin or Sechin came up with a similar idea. According to him, one of the meeting participants spoke about the need to allocate a large amount of money, but he did not specify who it was. “It was not President Putin’s initiative, although the head of state certainly welcomed it,” Peskov.
However, Ukraine could also encounter the problem of financing the war in the foreseeable future.
According to Bloomberg, Kyiv has financial means to cover defense costs only until June of this year. The Ukrainians mainly relied on a 90 billion loan from the European Union, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked it for the Druzhba pipeline. Analysts suggest that the fate of the loan is likely to remain uncertain at least until the Hungarian parliamentary elections on April 12.
The total amount of financial aid that Ukraine needs in 2026 is estimated at $52 billion, according to Bloomberg.
