The president’s age is a preponderant factor, considering that Lula has changed names relatively frequently and committed gaffes considered unforgivable for a head of the Executive
In recent days, news has emerged with greater emphasis that Lula might not run in this year’s elections. Nothing official. These are those conversations that appear to be true, for example, “according to sources linked to the president”. This “rumor” is born from certain indications.
The president’s age is a preponderant factor, considering that Lula has changed names relatively frequently and committed gaffes considered unforgivable for a head of the Executive.
vain Lula
Another relevant reason is the dizzying rise of its biggest competitor, Flávio Bolsonaro. Until recently seen as the most fragile of his opponents, in just two months he accelerated in the polls and surpassed Lula in absolute numbers in a likely second round. Not to mention the disapproval, which, in the case of the PT member, continues to grow.
And what would this have to do with giving up? Anyone who knows Lula knows that he has always been very vain and is proud of his electoral victories. And rightly so, it should have. Therefore, some predictions are that he will find a good excuse, stop competing and come out on top. This way, he would preserve a winning biography.
Similarities between Biden and Lula
Imagining that this withdrawal could actually occur, which seems far from true since throughout his political career, even in the most challenging moments, he never threw in the towel, some points need to be addressed.
In hypothetical reasoning, if he were to abandon ship, who would Kamala Harris be in a position to replace him? The American experience has been disastrous for Democrats.
Biden’s supporters left, leaving until practically the last moment. After the failure in the debate, in which Trump showed his incomparable superiority, Vice President Kamala was appointed as the Republican’s opponent. The result was what we saw, the overwhelming victory of its competitor in practically all sectors, from the votes of delegates to voters.
Short time
Therefore, if any decision in this regard were to be made, it would have to be as quickly as possible to give time to put body and soul into the campaign. Therein lies another obstacle: who could replace Lula on this journey? Fernando Haddad is the president’s preferred name at all times.
He needed a candidate while he was in prison, so Haddad went. He needed a Minister of Finance, a vital sector for the administration of his government, so Haddad went there, even though, as he himself admitted, he was not in the field. Now, he has accepted another option, that of running for governor of São Paulo, knowing that he is no match for Tarcísio. But like a good soldier, he pays for the mission.
If the holder is already having difficulty…
In the case of the presidency, if it is difficult for Lula to face Flávio, you can imagine what would happen to Haddad. It would run the risk of losing even to those that are currently on the shelf under research, such as the cases of Caiado and Zema. Although politics plays tricks and allows incomprehensible twists and turns, the outcome would be more or less predictable.
This was Lula’s defect during his career as party leader. It never actually created new leadership. On the contrary, he centralized everything as much as he could around his name. If, on the one hand, he has worked so far, so much so that he managed to reach the presidency for the third time, in moments like this, there is a risk of disruption to the continuity of his legacy.
Flávio and Caiado in the cabin
Other candidates are located so far to the left that they would not represent the sectors that currently support him, such as the powerful people of Faria Lima, who saw their profits multiply with him. This financial sector is rooting for Haddad to be the candidate, but perhaps it is more in return for the “good partnership” than as a conviction of his electoral political strength to wear the presidential sash.
This is a dilemma for progressives. Either Lula turns the tables and begins to gain traction in the campaign, based on measures that the incumbent pen allows, or he accepts a clear defeat for himself or for whoever he nominates for the sacrifice.
Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro, although he is beginning to be increasingly harassed in the campaign, and Caiado, the most projected new player after the two, with more remote chances, are watching this fight for survival by the government supporters from a box seat. Follow on Instagram: @polito
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
