Hungary celebrates this Sunday legislative elections crucial for the country and for all of Europe, since the current government of the ultranationalist Viktor Orbánan ally of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, could lose power after 16 years of absolute majorities. The candidate of the conservative party Tisza, Péter Hungarianformer member of the ruling party Fideszcomfortably leads most polls (but not all) in the final stretch of the electoral campaign.
Just over 8 million Hungarians will elect the 199 members of Parliamentwhere Fidesz has had majorities of more than two-thirds of the chamber since 2010. 106 of the 199 seats are chosen in single-member constituencieswhere the party with the most votes wins the deputy in the running, while the remaining 93 parliamentarians are elected proportionally among the national party lists.
Regarding the evolution of the surveys, there is an enormous disparity depending on the affinity to the Government of the demographic company that prepares the study. Most polls reflect that Tisza is the clear favorite for victory and some of them have given him up to 23 points ahead of Fideszalthough the average of recent weeks places that distance at 8 to 9 points. The exceptions are estimates of the Nezopont institutevery close to Orbán, who predicts a new victory for Fidesz.
In any case, the aforementioned Hungarian electoral system makes it possible for Orbán’s party to get a majority of seats in Parliament even if it reaches only a 45% of the voteswhile Tisza could end up needing more than 55% to secure a majority.
The key for Magyar is to penetrate rural Hungary strongly, given that the electoral system benefits Fidesz because it gives more weight to the vote from within the country, where Orbán has his main source of support. Instead, Tisza has a clear advantage in big cities.
Meanwhile, the left-wing parties could disappear completely from the political spectrum, while the extreme right of Our Homeland Nor does it seem that it will enter Parliament as Orbán and Magyar concentrate the entire conservative vote, whether moderate or populist. For all this, it could happen that Fidesz and Tisza are the only two forces in the next Hungarian hemicycle.
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