Summer hasn’t started yet, but on European airlines there is already a word that is repeated with concern: fuel. and the blockade of one of the most important routes in the world have set off all the alarms.
The problem has a name and location: . A key part of the fuel that reaches Europe circulates through this strategic passage. And right now, it’s blocked.
The last symbol of this situation is the oil tanker “Rong Lin Wan”, a 250-meter giant that will arrive in Rotterdam as the last shipment of kerosene coming from the Persian Gulf to Europe. Behind him, according to sector forecasts, nothing else will come for now.
And that changes everything.
Less fuel, same summer
The figures handled by the airlines are clear and worrying. According to internal estimates, Europa In a few weeks it could be left with barely half of the kerosene available.
“Perhaps we can gain between three and five weeks by drawing on strategic reserves”explains a sector manager. But the warning is clear: it will not be enough.
Because there is a basic problem that does not allow interpretation. If there is less fuel, there will be fewer flights.
A dependency that takes its toll
Although Europe does not depend as much on raw Gulf oil, it does depend on something more specific: refined kerosene for aviation.
According to industry data, approximately half of the fuel used at European airports comes from that region. Countries like Spain or Portugal depend around 70% of imports, while others like Greece or Poland even exceed those figures.
When that chain is broken, there are not many immediate alternatives.
United States, West Africa or India They can cover part of the deficit, but not enough. And many suppliers are diverting their shipments to Asia, where margins are higher.
“The math is simple”
They do not hide in the sector. The message is direct.
“We are all working on contingency plans”acknowledges a senior airline executive. And he adds a phrase that summarizes the situation: “The math is simple: you cannot maintain the same number of flights without the same amount of fuel.”
That is the scenario that is starting to really worry. Because it’s not just about making tickets more expensive. It’s about reducing activity.
Planes on the ground and thousands of cancellations
If the situation is prolonged, the consequences may be visible very soon.
“We will see hundreds of planes grounded and thousands of flights canceled”they warn from the sector. Some companies already consider specific scenarios. Lufthansa, for example, is studying grounding between 20 and 40 planes depending on how the crisis evolves.
The impact would be especially strong in the summer, when demand peaks.
And, above all, in tourist destinations.
Summer in the spotlight
A good part of the annual air traffic in Europe is concentrated between June and September. Is The moment you fly the most, the most you bill… and also when it is most difficult to absorb any problem.
Tourist airports and The islands are the most vulnerable. Its dependence on external supply means that any interruption has an immediate effect.
In the worst case, airlines could reduce frequencies on highly in-demand routes or even eliminate some connections.
The price also skyrockets
Added to the scarcity is another problem: cost.
In a matter of weeks, the price of kerosene has skyrocketed to nearly $1,800 per ton, more than double what it was at the end of February. Added to this is the increase in the call “crack spread“, the refining margin that is not covered by contracts and that must be assumed directly by the airlines.
The result is double pressure: less fuel and more expensive. And that ends up being transferred, in one way or another, to the consumer.
A problem that comes from before
Although the war has accelerated the crisis, the problem is not new. Europe has been seeing its kerosene production capacity decline for years.
The closure of refineries, the lower profitability of the sector and environmental demands – such as the mandatory use of biofuels, which are more expensive and scarce – were already reducing supply.
Added to this are the sanctions Russiawhich have limited another nearby source of supply. The war, in this context, has acted as a trigger.
Is there room to avoid it?
All is not lost. The scenario depends largely on what happens in the coming weeks.
If the conflict is reduced and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened soon, the impact could be limited. “If it reopens in mid or late April, there would be no risk to supply,” said Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary.
But if the situation continues, O’Leary himself recognizes that between 10% and 25% of the supply could be affected between May and June. And that, in the middle of summer, is enough to alter all planning.
A summer under surveillance
For now, airlines are working on contingency plans, adjusting routes and analyzing scenarios almost daily.
The objective is clear: avoid a collapse. But the room for maneuver is limited. Because ultimately it all depends on something that’s out of your control: fuel flow.
And this summer, more than ever, flying in Europe will depend not only on demand… but on how much kerosene is left available.
