Donald Trump has already raised the possibility of sending US troops against drug cartels in Latin America. He found a willing partner in Ecuador’s 38-year-old US-educated President Daniel Noboa, who came to power on a platform based on law and order.
The son of a banana tycoon, Noboa is betting on a closer strategic alliance with Washington after decades of distrust between the two countries. The calculation is simple: while China offers investments and loans, the US can deliver what Ecuador needs most right now — control over the escalation of drug-related violence, which has transformed the country from one of the safest in Latin America to one of the most violent in the region.
In an interview in his apartment overlooking the waterfront of Guayaquil — the epicenter of the Ecuadorian security crisis — Noboa described how his government is trying to regain control. Around 50 security agents, including military and police, guarded the building during the conversation.
“Our number 1 partner in terms of security and defense is the US,” Noboa stated, adding that he would be open to the presence of US troops operating in Ecuador under the command of the local Armed Forces. “The US understands that most drugs pass through Latin America before reaching the States, so it is better to attack the problem at the source than wait until it crosses the border.”
Since taking office in 2023, Noboa has declared the existence of an internal armed conflict, classified more than 20 criminal groups as terrorist organizations, mobilized the Army across the country and imposed curfews in critical areas. Joint operations with the US military, providing technology and intelligence, began last month.
Noboa has a very different view than many leaders in the region, who remain skeptical of U.S. military involvement. He says the partnership not only helps him fight cartels, but is also part of a broader economic strategy to reduce what he describes as Ecuador’s excessive dependence on China.
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The relationship between Quito and Beijing was built by Noboa’s socialist predecessors over more than a decade, through “loan-for-oil” deals and major infrastructure projects — some of which ended in protracted arbitration disputes with Chinese companies.
“I think it’s simply better to depend less on a single country,” he said. “When you depend too much on one nation and you have a problem, a dispute, it is almost impossible to win, because you are already tied.”
Like Noboa, “Ecuadorians view the relationship with China in a very pragmatic way, while doing business with the US is much more complicated, often involving bureaucratic processes and a limited appetite to put money on the table,” said Beatriz Garcia Nice, a Latin America analyst at the Stimson Center, based in Guayaquil, Noboa’s hometown.
Mixed results
Noboa’s alliance with Trump has so far produced mixed results, both in the security and economic areas.
Homicides initially fell by about 15% in 2024, but soared to a record the following year as the arrest of major cartel leaders triggered violent power struggles between lower-level groups. And although foreign direct investment in Ecuador last year was the highest since before the pandemic — thanks in part to increased US capital — Chinese investment still accounted for a larger share.
Noboa says investors are more confident in Ecuador thanks to efforts to restore macroeconomic stability, including a $5 billion program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), tax increases and cuts in fuel subsidies, which have helped reduce the fiscal deficit and country risk.
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“To attract investment, predictability is fundamental,” he stated, pointing to the improvement in banking system liquidity, the fall in interest rates and the increase in domestic consumption as signs of a more stable environment.
The Ecuadorian economy grew by around 3.7% in 2025, after shrinking in the previous year, and Noboa targets annual expansion above 4%, with oil, mining and construction among the sectors that should lead the advance. He has ruled out new major austerity measures and has instead promoted incentives such as tax breaks for hiring young people and investments in housing and security.
For Noboa, the challenge is balancing this economic boost with an ongoing security campaign. The hardest part, he says, is “keeping the country and the economy running” while cracking down on criminal groups. His approach, he adds, is “iron fist with heart” — combining strength with job creation and opportunity.
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Tariff war
With a carefully constructed public image — which includes sharing her workouts on social media — Noboa has positioned herself as a modern, aspirational figure in a country tired of political instability. The message resonated with a younger generation of voters, who propelled him to the presidency.
A recent graduate of several prestigious universities, Noboa was elected to Ecuador’s National Assembly in 2021. His father is the country’s richest man, who has unsuccessfully run for president on five occasions.
Noboa came to power in October 2023, after an election season marred by violence. Presidential candidate and anti-corruption crusader Fernando Villavicencio was shot dead at a campaign event days before the first round of early elections in August. A few months after Noboa took office, armed men invaded a television studio in Guayaquil live, in one of the most daring attacks in the country’s recent history.
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In office, Noboa’s decisions have often been more pragmatic than ideological, at times echoing Trump’s confrontational stance in the region.
He has used tariffs and tough talk to pressure Colombia, arguing that energy deals that guarantee about 10% of the electricity consumed in Ecuador “are not necessarily fair” and that Bogotá “didn’t want to make any deals” on security or energy cooperation.
Relations with Mexico also remain tense following the 2024 police raid on the Mexican embassy in Quito.
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“They are more focused on ideology than I am,” Noboa said of some of his peers in the region. “I’m focused on safety.”
Noboa praises Trump’s new focus on Latin America — “for the first time in a long time, the US is seeing Ecuador as a potential partner,” he said — but acknowledges that aligning closely with the US president can be uncomfortable at times. Trump’s rhetoric, including threats to eliminate “an entire civilization” in the Middle East, “is heavy-handed,” Noboa said.
“What I consider is the willingness of this US government to finally go after the narco-terrorists in our region,” he said. “Maybe the form is not ideal, but the true intention and the plan, in my view, is good.”
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
