The ceasefire announced between the United States and Iran should be considered not only fragile, but also temporary, according to Gunther Rudzit, professor of International Relations at ESPM. In an interview with Hour Hthe expert highlighted that the agreement was negotiated indirectly between the countries, which leaves room for different interpretations of what was agreed.
Regarding the economic effects of the conflict, Rudzit warned that the current crisis can be considered a “third oil shock”, as it is highlighting to market agents the excessive global dependence on the Persian Gulf region and its instability. “The market knows that it will have to find alternatives to this excessive dependence on the Persian Gulf”, stated the professor.
“Iran does not need to have a gigantic military capacity to affect the entire world, as we have just seen. It is enough for it, the government, the Iranian regime, to say that it can close the , which causes all this chaos in the international market again”, he explained.
The professor highlighted that one of the points established by Iran in the ceasefire is that the country will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil transport. Rudzit predicts that the global market will need to look for alternatives to this excessive dependence on the region. “For this very reason, renewable energy, other sources, nuclear energy, wind energy, will return with strength because what was imagined to be stable in this global energy structure, has been demonstrated to not be stable”, he concluded.
Rudzit explained that, according to reports, Iran accepted the ceasefire grudgingly, following Chinese pressure. “The country does not want the global economy to plunge into a recession and cause an economic slowdown even in China,” said the professor, highlighting that this is one of the reasons why the agreement is so fragile.
The expert also highlighted that Israel’s interests, particularly those of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, do not converge with those of the American government. According to Rudzit, the Israeli government began the mission with the aim of ending the group’s presence in southern Lebanon, and intends to carry this mission to the end, especially after failing to promote regime change in Iran.
