Today, Sunday, April 12, as it is the first time that the opposition appears to seriously threaten the Fidesz-KDNP coalition, which has been ruling the country since 2010.
Today’s election is the 10th parliamentary contest since the fall of the communist regime in 1990.
The country’s Parliament has 199 seats in total. 106 seats from single-seat districts (majority system) and 93 seats from national lists (proportional system with an electoral threshold of 5%).
Orbán’s main opponent is Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz executive, who leads the Tisza party (TISZA Párt).
Tisza has emerged as a broad opposition movement, with an emphasis on fighting corruption, strengthening relations with the EU and NATO, and economic recovery. Many characterize it as a “catch-all” party that attracts voters from the center and the right.
The far-right party Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) and perhaps other smaller parties also have a chance of entering parliament, but the landscape is dominated by Fidesz and Tisza.
“In the West they call Orbán’s party far-right, but one should keep in mind that there are parties to the right of Fidesz, and parties that are further to the right of these parties. Essentially, I would describe Orbán’s party as center-right,” Kostas Georgiou, of Greek origin, who has been living in Hungary for the past 19 years, tells us.
Most independent polls show Tisza ahead of Fidesz, often by 5-15 percentage points.
Yesterday afternoon, Orbán’s party organized the last election rally in Triad Square inside the Buda Castle, next to the Fishermen’s Bastion, one of the most emblematic spots of Budapest.
It was a gathering that local media described as “gigantic”, with a huge crowd clapping and shouting pro-Orban slogans. People were also overflowing in the surrounding streets and squares of the Castle.
When darkness fell, the square turned into a sea of light. Thousands kept their cellphone flashlights burning, as well as candles, while floodlights and lasers created a festive atmosphere. People were singing, clapping rhythmically and the atmosphere was more of a “party” than a purely political gathering.
Orban stated that Fidesz will win everywhere even in places where the opponents do not expect. He emphasized that the electoral battle does not end with the closing of the campaign, but continues until 7 pm on Sunday.
He said that without the capital there can be no effective governance, and that “we have to take back Budapest as well.”
The main message was: “It is not time to lose what we have built in recent years. We must protect the peace, security and sovereignty of the country.”
It was preceded on Friday, April 10 by a large gathering-concert against Orbán in Heroes’ Square which was attended by more than 100,000 spectators. The event was free, organized by Robert Puzer and the “Political Resistance” movement and broadcast live on the Internet. More than 50 popular artists appeared on stage, while loud slogans such as “Russians, go home!”
Magyar’s party has a strong appeal among young people, with the percentage of those under 30 supporting it reaching 60%. According to the latest opinion polls, there are many who declare themselves undecided, so the result is not certain.
The electoral system slightly favors the largest party in single-seat districts, so Tisza needs a clear edge in the popular vote to secure a majority of seats.
“Yes, the polls give Magyar the lead, but no one should underestimate Orbán’s ability to surprise us,” says Mr. Georgiou.
The election campaign was particularly heated and the biggest disputes were taking place in the background, with the main rivals accusing each other of “treason”.
One sees posters of Orbán at bus stops and many posters of Tisza candidates on poles in the central streets of Budapest.
We also see many posters with Zelensky’s photo next to Magyar’s and the slogan “Let’s stop them”. This is a classic Fidesz negative campaign that tries to connect Magyar with Zelensky and indirectly with pro-Ukrainian positions that Fidesz presents as dangerous for Hungary.
The country’s government has accused Facebook of hiding Orban’s posts while promoting Magyar’s. Meta denies the allegations.
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Central issues of the pre-election campaign
As far as foreign policy is concerned, Orbán promotes the slogan “peace instead of war”, blames Ukraine and the EU and maintains close relations with Russia. Tisza wants a more pro-European stance.
On economic issues, Maiard accuses the government of stagnation, inflation and corruption. He also accuses Orbán of authoritarianism, control of the media and misuse of public funds.
Orban has been openly supported by US President Donald Trump, and Vice President J. D. Vance who was in Budapest a few days ago and made statements in favor of the ruling party. “My administration will do everything possible to financially support Hungary if Orban and the Hungarian people need it,” Trump wrote on social networks.
On the EU side, he hopes for a change to end Hungary’s vetoes on common policies (eg aid to Ukraine).
What do these elections mean?
If Tisza wins, there may be a shift towards more pro-European politics and better relations with Brussels. If Orban wins, the conflict with the EU will continue.
It should be noted that Hungary often uses its veto power to block joint decisions, such as aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Also, Orban opposes Ukraine’s entry into the EU, while on the issue of immigration he has stated many times that “he will not allow Hungary to become an unripe vine, as is the case with other European countries”.
Orbán also maintains close relations with Russia and China, contrary to the dominant EU line.
What are voters saying?
“These elections are crucial for the survival of Hungary. Orban kept us out of the war in Ukraine. We sent no weapons, no billions. It has kept immigrants out, which is why Hungary is one of the safest countries in the EU. Magyar was ours, but now it has been bought by Brussels, Zelensky and the so-called liberals. He is their puppet. If he wins, the next day the EU money will be unfrozen, but in return we will lose our sovereignty”, says 45-year-old Michael Kovacs.
“Now the polls are coming and they say that Magyar is ahead. Who does these polls? The same ones who want to throw us down. And we know that the EU, Ukraine and some “friends” from outside are interfering. They use social media, and threaten with “frozen funds. But Hungarians are not stupid. In the end, in the single-seat districts, where the real work counts, Fidesz is strong.” Orban has won four times. He will win even now”, he concludes.
On the other hand Dorina Naz, 32 years old and mother of one child tells us that these elections are “our last chance to save Hungary from a ‘mafia’ that has made it the poorest and most corrupt country in the European Union.” Orban has ruled for 16 years. And what it gave us: Hospitals falling apart, schools without teachers, wages not even enough to eat, and billions of euros from the EU frozen because they steal our money with overpriced projects and oligarch friends. I will vote for Maiard because he is the only one who speaks clearly for change. Who promises to expel the thieves from the state. Increase pensions and family benefits that have been frozen since 2008. I am tired of seeing our children go abroad because they have no future here. Orban terrorizes us with “war” and “immigrants”. But the real war is the one he is waging on his own people: he is stealing our future.”
Text-photos: D. Galanis
