President has 39.2% against 30.2% for Flávio Bolsonaro; Next come Ronaldo Caiado, with 4.6%, and Romeu Zema, with 3.3%
The president (PT) leads in all business scenarios 1st and 2nd rounds of the 2026 presidential elections, according to a survey by the MDA Institute, contracted by the National Transport Confederation (CNT), released this Tuesday (April 14, 2026).
The institute asked in relation to the 1st round: “If the elections were held today with the candidates I’m showing you, who would you vote for as president of Brazil?”. Here is how the interviewees responded:
No 2º turn, the research tested Lula against (PL), (Novo), (PSD), (DC) and Renan Santos (Missão). And he asked the following question: “In the event of a second round for president of Brazil, who would you vote for?”.
- Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro: 44.9% to 40.2%, with 11.3% blank and null, in addition to 3.6% undecided;
- Lula against Romeo Zema: 45.2% to 31.6%, with 15.9% blank and null, in addition to 7.3% undecided;
- Lula against Ronaldo Caiado: 44.4% to 32.7%, with 15.2% blank and null, in addition to 7.7% undecided;
- Lula against Aldo Rebelo: 45.4% to 29.1%, with 17.5% blank and null, in addition to 8% undecided;
- Lula against Renan Santos: 45% to 28.3%, with 17.7% blank and null, in addition to 9% undecided.
The survey interviewed 2,002 people in approximately 140 municipalities from April 8 to 10, 2026. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level of the survey is 95%. Read the full study ( – 6,1 MB).
The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-02847/2026. The study cost R$230,038. It was paid for by the National Transport Confederation.
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