As the concern about the real economic impact of and the tension in it takes, through the IMF’s forecasts for the world economy, an “official” character, the developments demonstrate that despite the non-agreement in Islamabad, diplomacy both on the issue of Iran, and on the issue of , will likely continue.
It may be that after the end of the talks, Iran is moving forward with moves that increase the pressure on the world economy (see announcements about the blockade of ports in Iran and the Gulf countries), but at the same time they show a willingness to have a second round of talks.
Although Tehran is clearly wary, since the US demands were seen as essentially excessive, it has appeared relenting on the issue of the Straits blockade by considering a short-term pause in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The issue with the uranium proposal
According to what has become known, during contacts in Pakistan the American side submitted a new proposal to Iran regarding its nuclear program. The United States has asked Tehran to commit to not enriching uranium for 20 years.
The American side argues that this proposal is considered more “flexible” than previous demands by Washington, which provided for the complete and permanent abandonment of the right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil. In exchange for freezing the program for two decades, the United States reportedly offered an easing of economic sanctions imposed on Iran in recent years.
For its part, Tehran rejected the proposal and instead proposed a much shorter pause of a few years. At the same time, Iranian officials also rejected the American demand that the country’s highly enriched uranium stockpiles be transferred abroad.
Trump’s statements on the resumption of talks
Despite this context, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, left open the possibility of resuming talks in the coming days. In an interview with the New York Post, he said that contacts could resume in Pakistan within the next two days, noting that “something could happen very soon.”
The US president also praised Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir for his role in the negotiations, saying he is doing an “excellent job”.
US strategy and moves internationally
According to analysts, Washington’s strategy towards Tehran is based on a combination of economic pressure and diplomatic mobilization of other international powers. Donald Trump is attempting to intensify economic pressure on Iran, creating conditions of economic suffocation, while at the same time seeking to involve other major powers in the effort to pressure the Iranian leadership.
In this context, the initiative of the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, to proceed with contacts with the President of Iran, Massoud Pezheskian, is interesting, asking for the resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran, the avoidance of further escalation and the opening of the Straits of Hormuz as soon as possible. Equally interesting is the attitude of China, which characterized the closure of the Straits by the USA as irresponsible.
UN: possible restart of negotiations
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres made a similar assessment to Donald Trump, who argued that there are strong indications that negotiations to end the war with Iran are very likely to be resumed.
Speaking to reporters at United Nations headquarters, he noted that it was “extremely likely” that talks would resume, stressing that the process would take time.
He added that he had a meeting with Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and praised Islamabad’s role in mediation and de-escalation efforts.
“I consider it necessary to continue the negotiations,” he stressed, noting that it is unrealistic to expect a solution in a single round of talks.
Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington
In addition to the above, a meeting between representatives of the governments of Lebanon and Israel took place in Washington, with the mediation of the USA, lasting about two hours, the result of which seems to confirm the famous saying that in diplomatic discussions, whoever does not have a place at the table, has a place on the menu.
According to what the Israeli side reported after the end of the “historic” – as it was described as the two sides do not have official relations and are technically at war – meeting, the Lebanese government agrees that Lebanon should be “liberated” from Hezbollah. The two sides agreed to start direct negotiations at a place and time to be mutually agreed upon.
The meeting was attended by Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yehiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamade Moawad, while United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio was also present, who called the proceedings a “historic opportunity.”
Washington is seeking the demilitarization of the southern region of Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah, while at the same time there is international pressure to de-escalate the crisis.
In a joint statement, foreign ministers from European countries as well as Western allies, including Greece, France, Spain and the United Kingdom, called on all sides to work for a permanent political solution and to include Lebanon in broader de-escalation efforts in the region.
The ministers welcomed President Aoun’s initiative for direct talks and their acceptance by the Israeli side, noting that negotiations can pave the way for long-term security for both Lebanon and Israel.
For its part, Hezbollah responded to the negotiations by increasing its attacks against Israel.
The IMF on the global economy
The above comes at a time when the International Monetary Fund proceeded to downgrade its forecasts for global growth, estimating that the economy will grow at a rate of 3.1% in 2026, against 3.4% the previous year.
At the same time, it revised up its forecast for global inflation to 4.4%, as rising energy prices ripple through the economy.
According to the Fund’s chief economist, the conflict in the Middle East has stalled the momentum of the global economy, despite a previous boost from investment and technological development.
The Fund’s baseline scenario envisages an increase in energy prices of around 19% and an oil price of around $82 a barrel in 2026.
