Four tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz towards the east, heading for the Gulf of Oman, in the early hours of Saturday (18), according to ship tracking data from MarineTraffic, in what could be a test for the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Two of the ships were destined for China, transporting liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), according to the data.
Two of the vessels — Raine and Gardenian — are from OFAC, from the US Treasury. All four tankers appear to be part of Iran’s “dark fleet,” according to data provided by United Against Nuclear Iran, an Iran-focused policy organization.
The US military has been imposing one on all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports since last Monday.
But after Iran’s foreign minister declared the strait “completely open” for the duration of the truce, which expires on Tuesday, the speaker of Iran’s parliament warned it would be closed again unless the US lifted the blockade.
US CENTCOM commander General Dan Caine said earlier this week that the US would pursue Iranian-linked ships in waters far away from the Middle East, specifically mentioning the Indo-Pacific. It remains to be seen whether the US will detain the vessels while they transit international waters.
“Iran is in a narrow window where timing is everything. The tankers we see moving today are, in practice, stuck in a three-week flow before any oil reaches China,” said Charlie Brown, senior adviser on ghost fleet tracking at United Against Nuclear Iran and a former U.S. Navy officer.
“This means that the real test of the blockade is not immediate. It begins about 10 days from the start of the blockade, when these vessels should be openly transiting the Malacca and Singapore straits, visible again on the AIS — before arriving at the Malaysian anchorage (Eastern Out of Port Limits), where they ‘black out’ again and attempt clandestine ship-to-ship transfers,” Brown added.
“If this chain is interrupted, the effects can be cumulative.”
