A new rally in Ibovespa at the beginning of last week, it once again brought the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange closer to the unprecedented mark of 200 thousand pointswith the recovery of risk assets amid optimism that the United States and Iran can reach an agreement to end the war in the Middle East.
The performance has found support in the flow of foreigners, who see Latin America as a safe haven between emerging markets — and .
According to data from B3, totaling R$67.8 billion in the year.
Experts consulted by CNN Money They said that after reaching 200 thousand points, Ibovespa’s next target is around 220 thousand — depending on domestic and international factors.
For Luan Aral, specialist at Genial Investimentos, from a technical point of view and, mainly, from the entry of capital flow into the stock market, especially foreign ones, reaching the 200 thousand points mark is not the end of the upward movement.
One of the reasons for maintaining gas is the expectation of further cuts in the interest rate, currently at 14.75%, he explains.
“In the short term, after these 200,000 points, I see a relevant technical target of around 210,000 and very close to 220,000 points, considering some trend projections and also the extent of foreign flow that has yet to come to Brazil.”
For the end of the year, Aral works with the base scenario close to the 220 thousand pointswith the possibility of an increase, if the interest cycle accelerates and the entry of foreign flows continues.
Fernando Benavenuto, investment specialist at Anvex Capital, is more optimistic and analyzes that, after overcoming the barrier of 200 thousand points, the range of 220 thousand to 250 thousand is the next reference level, if the scenario is favorable.
For him, the upward movement will be supported by two pillars, which need to be consolidated simultaneously: consistent expansion of corporate profits and closing of the long interest rate curve.
“As long as public bonds indexed to inflation continue to offer high real returns, competition between fixed income and variable income remains fierce, which naturally limits the expansion of multiples on the stock market. upside exists, but needs to be built, not just inherited by flow [estrangeiro]”, he evaluates.
Benavenuto believes that the Ibovespa could end 2026 in the range of 220 thousand to 235 thousand points, but the second half of the year will be decisive with the fiscal positioning of the electoral scenario.
“A credible signal of balance in public accounts would have the capacity to compress long interest rates and release a re-rating relevant to the exchange. Without this catalyst, the range of 220 to 230 thousand points already represents a robust result and technically consistent with current market fundamentals. valuation.”
Despite the constructive scenario, the expert raises a point of attention that could bring volatility to the market: the exit of foreign capital from the stock market.
The recent Ibovespa rally was supported by foreign flows due to a combination of factors that made Brazil attractive to foreign capital. However, in Benavenuto’s assessment, the flow has a fragile characteristic.
“It arrived quickly, is concentrated in non-residents and has not yet been followed by domestic institutional investors and individuals, which makes the market more susceptible to abrupt reversals in the face of external shocks.”
Stock market in new phase
The director of Oz Câmbio, Raissa Florence, assesses that after reaching 200 thousand points, the Ibovespa will enter a more selective phase, with more measured increases.
“From now on the game is different, the market becomes a little more selective and now we can start looking at the Ibovespa with a more moderate growth, showing that the index could seek something between 210 and 220 thousand points in the coming months, if the scenario continues as it is.”
According to Florence, for the stock market to reach 230,000 and 240,000 points, very strong and accelerated growth is needed, and for this “a more favorable global environment is necessary”.
“After 200 thousand points, Ibovespa stops being a ‘trade of valuation’ and it will be a trade more trustworthy. In other words, we have to look much more structurally at what supports Ibovespa from now on. This is what will dictate our performance for the next cycles”, analyzes the specialist.
Aral, from Genial, assesses that the rise in the Ibovespa should expand to shares of smaller companies, small caps, after blue chips captured a large part of the inflow of foreign flows.
“The foreigners really like big companies, but I see a lot of potential in small caps, which still trade at a very significant discount. They ended up not following this recent rise in the Ibovespa to the same extent”, he analyzes.
For the specialist, after the rally Initially, the market tends to migrate capital to smaller companies.
“It’s what we call ‘alligator mouth’, the market ends up absorbing the small caps. Investors who look at these shares can see greater potential. What they invest in Blue Chips could be coming at the end of the party.”
