There are currently no substantive reasons on the horizon to fear for the continued validity of the democratic regime in Brazil, at least with regard to the presidential candidacies already presented.
The president () lives up to his history of respecting legality in previous defeats when he says that, if he loses, there is nothing for him to do but accept the result. The main opponent, (), signals that he only accepts the victory as legitimate, but the father’s arrest gives his speech the tone of bravado devoid of any basis in reality.
Therefore, the defense of democracy is an electoral flag that has expired. If they want to win the decisive votes of —somewhere around 30% of the electorate—, they will need to fight in the field of meeting the demands of those devoid of ideological emotions.
These people already know how to govern, but they have no idea of how Flávio Bolsonaro intends to govern. The reference to the father’s management is negative and the son’s attempt to give a moderate color to the family’s convictions clashes with the clan’s convictions about how to run the country. Will Flávio deny Jair? Hard to happen.
Add to that the fact that neither of them displays statesmanship credentials. The former president’s firstborn needs to show himself in a different skin. Will the pastel-colored costume convince moderates to join in and extremes to understand it as an occasional trick?
On the part of the PT member, despite judgment on merit, the vocation for leadership is unequivocal. The doubts that remain concern the electorate’s motivation to once again trust the broad front theory, promoted in the 2022 campaign and abandoned during the Presidency, in addition to the credibility of an aging government program.
We therefore have a credibility problem haunting the favorite candidates. The ghost materializes in the 62% of the electorate who still do not spontaneously express their choice to vote.
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