Proteins, rice and olive oil have seen price increases above general inflation in the year to date; dollar expansion impacted the index
Brazilians’ Christmas dinner will be more expensive in 2024. Most foods traditionally consumed during the holiday have seen an increase in prices, according to official inflation data.
Despite not having had the biggest increases, meat (14.80%) and whole chicken (5.24%) varied above inflation in the year to November.
The main factors that led to the increase in animal proteins were the rise in the dollar and changes in the climate. Understand further below in the report.
The data is officially measured by the (Broad National Consumer Price Index), calculated by the (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
Read the ranking below:
Among the foods listed, olive oil had the most significant increase: 21.60%. This means that a bottle of the product that cost R$30 rose to R$36, in a hypothetical scenario.
Traditionally consumed at the end of the year and also used to prepare desserts, fruits in general also had a significant increase (11.57%). Rice (9.51%) and potatoes (7.59%) were also above the general IPCA.
SOME FALLING PRICES
On the other hand, some products saw a drop in prices in 2024. Carrots (-23.99%), tomatoes (-24.86%) and onions (-33.78%) stand out.
Even if proportionally significant, the drop is not enough to offset the increase in the cost of animal proteins. Vegetables generally have a cheaper retail value.
“Even though the prices of items such as onions and tomatoes have fallen, the reduction in lower value-added foods is not enough to offset the increases in cuts such as picanha and ribs”told the Poder360 economist and managing partner of .
CLIMATE AND DOLLARS IN THE PRICE OF MEAT
Some reasons justify the rise in food prices in 2024, according to Torres. In the case of animal proteins, these are the main ones:
- climatic conditions – the high temperatures hampered the recovery of pastures, which limited the availability of livestock;
- reduction in cow slaughter – the last 3 years have seen a large discard of females. The practice was abandoned in 2024, which reduced market supply and increased prices;
- dollar on the rise – the North American currency has reached 2024. This has impacted the value of meat because: 1) sales abroad became more attractive than the domestic market, reducing supply; and 2) increased the cost of importing inputs for animals, passed on to consumers;
- income restoration – the low levels of and increased the purchasing possibilities for Brazilians, who were now able to buy more meat. In this case, there was an influence of increased demand.
“The most significant variation in meat prices in 2024 was driven by a combination of structural and cyclical factors that impacted both supply and demand”declared Haroldo Torres.
Some cuts of meat felt some effects more than others. For example, parts considered premium were greatly impacted by income recovery. This is the case with picanha.
The retail values of other proteins, such as poultry, had a less intense expansion – but still driven by imports of inputs.
On the other hand, the drop in the price of products such as onions and tomatoes is explained by issues linked to the harvest:
- overproduction – both products had high productivity, which increased supply;
- imports – in the case of onions, Brazil imported too much of the product because of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul. When it returned to normal, the market was already saturated.
FOOD INFLATION & SQUID
General inflation for household food grew by 8.4% in the 12 months up to November. It is above the general IPCA, of 4.29%.
Therefore, Brazilians should spend Christmas 2024 with the highest price index for the sector since February 2023 – or 23 months.
The president’s government (PT) is particularly concerned about this index, due to the populist and social nature of the PT administration.
One of Lula’s most remembered promises in the elections concerns the price of picanha.
“This country has to grow again, it has to be happy again, it has to generate jobs again. The people, I always say, the people have to go back to eating a barbecue, eating a picanha and having a beer”declared the president when interviewed in 2022 by National Newspaper.
PERCEPTION ABOUT THE ECONOMY
PowerData shows that Brazilians are less optimistic about their personal financial situation than they were 6 months ago. Today, 52% of voters say they believe their finances will “to improve” next semester. The rate fell 5 percentage points when it was 57% – the highest since the pandemic.
The decline interrupts an upward trend that had been recorded by the survey in the population’s perception.
On the opposite side, 16% of Brazilians declare that their personal financial situation should “get worse” in the next 6 months. It was 12% in July. In other words, there was an increase within the margin of error of 2 percentage points.
The numbers indicate that, although the majority of the population is optimistic about their personal economic future, there is already concern about the economic scenario.
The research was carried out by PowerDatagroup company Poder360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data was collected from December 14 to 16, 2024, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 2,500 interviews in 192 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%.
To reach 2,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100 thousand calls until interviewees are found that faithfully represent the population as a whole. Find out more about the methodology by reading .
