Abedin Taherkenareh / EPA
Donald Trump seems not to have realized that he started an unwinnable war — because Iran is not trying to win: it is simply seeking to resist, while ensuring that the cost of this conflict becomes unsustainable.
Rumor has it Napoleon Bonaparte commented, regarding his invasion of Russia, that “geography is destiny” And just look at a real-time maritime monitoring system like , to understand how Napoleon’s aphorism is manifesting itself today in the Middle East.
There is at this moment hundreds of ships on both sides of the , immobilized in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman. But nothing is passing.
In normal times, 20% of the world’s oil crosses this sea route. But, since the US and Israel began, in February, the wave of attacks on Iran, Tehran, both through the laying of mines and the threat to approach any ship that attempts to pass without your authorization.
The USA. And in recent days, both sides have demonstrated the seriousness of their intentions by threatening to board ships, board them, or force us to change course.
That Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz shouldn’t have been surprising no one says Jonathan Issenior editor of international politics, in an article in . Iranian leaders threatened to do so whenever they felt threatened over more than four decades.
Christian Emeryan expert on relations between the United States and Iran and security in the Persian Gulf at University College London, believes that this was why no previous US president has chosen to launch an attack on a large scale against Iran.
Thus, the Iran’s ability to profoundly disrupt the economy world when closing Hormuz was evident. “The only person who doesn’t seem to have noticed this was Donald Trump”, concludes Emery.
There is now, therefore, a situation of impasse. It’s a unwinnable warwrite Bamo Nouri and Inderjeet Parmarinternational security experts at City St George’s, University of London.
The US and Israel may have a overwhelming military superiority about Iran, but this is not essentialdefend Nouri and Parmar.
Although both Trump and Benjamin Netanyahuneed to show their voters that they emerged triumphant, Iran does not seek to win: it seeks to resistensuring, at the same time, that the cost of this conflict becomes unsustainable — not just for the USA, but also for every other country in the world.
We are already seeing this happen. Oil prices have soared and reserves are under pressure. Supply chains have been disrupted.
And political friction is causing tension in relations, not only between the US and its NATO allies, but also, more worryingly, with China, who usually buys between 80% and 90% of oil exports Iranians — and who said this week that the Strait must be reopened without delay.
Iran, conclude Nouri and Parmar, you don’t need to win. You just need to stop your opponents from achieving their goals. So far, that’s exactly what he’s done, he says. Jonathan Is.
There is a principle that helps explain why Iran’s position is so strong. It is known as Rubinstein negotiationhe writes Renaud Foucarteconomist at Lancaster University.
According to Foucart, this principle holds that, in a conflict, the relative strength of the adversaries depends on two things: “how bad would they be without a resolution and how impatient they are to resolve the situation”.
As we have seen, all the pressure falls on the US, while the ability to pressure is mainly in the hands of Iran. “The position of the United States is very weaker than initially thought because of a stretch of water that the world cannot do without”, he concludes.
On Tuesday, as we waited to see what might happen if the 14-day deadline imposed by Trump on April 8 expired without Tehran reopening the Strait, it was clear that both the United States and Iran, to different degrees, were looking for a way out.
The blockade is financially ruinous for Iranalthough it is not certain that he is losing 430 million euros per day, as Trump claims, we do not know. But it is, in practice, his “dissuasor nuclear“, and it is showing its effectiveness.
The closure of its oil exports is, however, reaching a economy already in a precarious situation and this week, the country’s Social Security Minister stated that two million people lost their jobs since the beginning of the war.
For Trump, the The problem is the skyrocketing prices at the gas pumps and the perspective of a rise in inflation that angers voters ahead of the November midterm elections.
The war is very unpopular among Americans, and, significantly, begins to fracture the MAGA coalition which brought Trump to power in the 2024 elections.
But there are ways for both sides to find solutions, he says David Galbreathfrom the University of Bath. The essential thing is to find an agreement that leaders on both sides can be presented as a “victory”.
But there are ways for both sides to find solutions, he says David Galbreathfrom the University of Bath. The essential thing is to find an agreement that leaders on both sides can be presented as a “victory”.
One of the obstacles for Donald Trump appears to be the fact that Iranian proposals could too similar to the agreement reached in 2015 by its predecessor, Barack Obama.
In the current state of things, a combination between the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of limits on uranium enrichment and agreement with strict inspections could be presented as a “victory” for Trump.
This could be a starting point, writes Galbreath, for what in conflict resolution is known as “sequenced de-escalationIt could allow for an initial agreement and pave the way for negotiators on both sides to get to work and iron out the details.
Obama’s treaty took 20 months to be agreed upon. It’s still early. But in the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz is open more often than it is closed, and fuel prices are rising more often than they have since.
