The nomination of the (Supreme Federal Court) was read by party leaders as a sign of the president’s isolation in this election. The assessment is that a reorganization of forces is underway around the senator (-RJ), who is tied with the president in polls of voting intentions for the second round.
The calculation is that the rejection does not take away votes from the PT member, but the episode illustrates how central parties moved away from Lula, who in this election must rely on an alliance restricted to left-wing parties. This scenario, yes, would have the capacity to harm him electorally in the long term.
On the PT side, the assessment is that the president should reinforce what he is trying to achieve in the electoral campaign. By this reasoning, Lula could tell the electorate that the Senate prevented him from placing an honest person on the STF. The court is under pressure because of the Banco Master scandal.
Politicians close to Lula also assess that the defeat of his nominee for the Supreme Court could have an influence on the PT alliance in at least two states.
The president would like his candidate for governor in Minas Gerais to be (PSB-MG), but some of the government supporters believe that he acted to defeat Messias. This would make the alliance even more difficult – not to mention that Pacheco never publicly announced a candidacy.
Another possible development is in Maranhão. Lula’s allies believe that the rejection of Messias also had the participation of the STF minister, who governed the state for eight years. Part of the PT members argue that, once Dino’s participation is confirmed, the party supports Orleans Brandão () for the Maranhão government. He is the nephew of the current governor, Carlos Brandão, who broke with the Supreme Court minister.
In this third term, Lula managed to attract wings of parties such as União Brasil, PP and Republicans by offering ministries and positions. Such an operation, however, is no longer interesting, and the parties, faced with the prospect of a possible victory for Flávio, have little initiative to help Lula.
The president tried to attract the MDB to his coalition in this year’s presidential race, but was unsuccessful. The tendency is for him to have on his side, in addition to the left, only sectors of center parties that can benefit electorally from being close to the PT member. For example, politicians from Bahia and other states where the president is popular.
Demonstrations of strength by Flávio and the opposition could reduce the President of the Republic’s ability to attract support from these party sectors.
Even though Messias’ rejection does not directly take votes from Lula, the political class understands that the defeat is a symptom of the difficulty that the PT will have in securing platforms for Lula, as there are fewer parliamentarians willing to join the government.
The defeat also showed that the PT member was unable to count on the good will of the president of the Legislature, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), head of a House that was considered by the government to be the safest in the Legislature. for the rejection of Messiah, although he publicly denies it.
Political leaders, however, believe that Messias’ defeat will not take votes away from Lula due to two factors. The first, that the political event occurs more than five months before the . The second, that the episode is restricted to a Legislative matter.
From this perspective, the senators’ opinion would not reflect the average Brazilian’s thinking, who would hardly follow the rite of nominations to the Supreme Court. In other words, the clamor for Messias’ rejection of the STF would be restricted only to the Bolsonarist electorate.
PT members interviewed by the report believe that the issue will not reach the election. The electorate would be more interested in projects such as other actions linked to economic themes.
Furthermore, party members believe that Messias’ rejection by the Senate gives the President of the Republic and his political group an opportunity to try to glue corruption scandals to the center, trying to target Flávio Bolsonaro.
Allies of the PT member believe that he usually becomes stronger after crisis situations.
They cite as an example the government’s reaction after the Executive’s attempt to increase the IOF (tax on financial operations) in 2025. The president’s political group adopted a “rich against poor” discourse that helped him get out of the ropes and, months later, it was important for Lula to regain his own popularity.
A sign that the president intends to present himself as an anti-system candidate was given on Thursday night (30), in Lula’s speech broadcast on national TV. “Every time we take a step forward to improve the lives of the Brazilian people, the system works against us. The top floor, the billionaires, the elite who only think about maintaining privileges at the expense of the people. If it were up to the system, not even slavery would have been abolished in Brazil,” said the president.
Members of other parties believe that this could be a shot in the foot for the government because it will alienate other political forces from Lula. It would become more difficult for the president to obtain support for his projects in Congress until the end of his term and also to attract new deputies and senators to his support base.
The president’s allies, however, emphasize that the government’s important measures in terms of popularity should also not be affected by the recent defeat. PT supporters are betting that the appeal to end the 6×1 scale will not allow Alcolumbre to postpone the agenda and that Desenrola 2.0 is being implemented via MP (Provisional Measure), without the need for approval from Congress.
