In the coming weeks, the Brazilian electricity sector will once again discuss risk aversion parameters used in the computational models that guide the operation of the SIN (National Interconnected System) and the formation of electricity prices.
Although it is a technical debate, its effects are direct on energy security, reasonable tariffs, regulatory predictability and competitiveness of the Brazilian economy. Therefore, it is important that this discussion considers not only today’s prices, but also the conditions necessary to guarantee security in energy supply in the coming years.
The Brazilian electrical system has changed profoundly in recent years. The expansion of the matrix occurred mainly through the accelerated incorporation of non-controllable renewable sources, especially wind and solar, while load continues to grow across the country. This transformation brought important gains to the diversification of the Brazilian electrical matrix, but also significantly increased the complexity of the system’s operation.
Today, we live simultaneously with a structural surplus of generation at certain times of the day, especially during times of greatest solar production, and with a growing need for flexibility to meet times of greatest demand, especially in the late afternoon and at night.
Furthermore, the rapid expansion of distributed micro and mini generation is adding relevant challenges to the representation of the load and the operational predictability of the system, further increasing the complexity of real-time operation. In practice, This means that the system has become more dependent on operational responsiveness and the preservation of flexible resources.
In this context, hydroelectric reservoirs assume even greater importance for the security of the SIN. Its role goes beyond stored energy. Reservoirs are essential for modulating generation throughout the day, compensating for variations in intermittent sources and preserving the system’s operational reliability.
Therefore, the assessment of energy security conditions and the calibration of parameters to meet the criteria of aversion to the risk of electricity shortages has become more complex in a matrix with increasing participation of variable sources.
The same level of water storage in reservoirs today does not necessarily represent the same level of operational safety observed in the past. That’s because the composition of the electrical matrix has changed and the relative flexibility of the system has decreased, and much. This point is central to the current debate on the parameters of risk aversion.
The parameters used by the computational models exist precisely to balance safety and operation cost, seeking to reflect the real conditions of the electrical system in the most accurate way possible.
In this sense, the parameters currently in force have demonstrated important adherence to the operational reality of the SIN, including in light of the structural transformations observed in recent years. Furthermore, recent improvements in computational models represent relevant advances by allowing a closer approximation between mathematical modeling and the real operation of the system.
It is also important to consider that a relevant part of the costs associated with energy security does not only appear directly in the short-term price, but can materialize later through systemic charges, additional dispatch of thermal generation and other operational measures necessary to preserve service. That’s why, the discussion about low tariffs cannot be dissociated from the discussion about operational security and coherence of economic signals.
In a more complex system, more variable and more dependent on operational flexibility, reducing the risk protection parameter may produce signals that are incompatible with the actual operating needs of the SIN.
The challenge for the Brazilian electricity sector is not to choose between energy security and reasonable tariffs. The challenge is to ensure that computational models can adequately represent the operational reality of the system.preserving coherence between operation, planning, expansion and price formation.
In complex electrical systems, parameters that adhere to operational reality are a necessary condition to ensure that, when the switch is pressed, the light comes on. light up.
* Marisete Pereira is president of Abrage (Brazilian Association of Electricity Generating Companies)
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