So far, the debate over the October general elections has focused on the presidential race. The theme of the week is whether Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy will be affected by his involvement with and the case of . There is little talk about proportionality, although the renewal of the Chamber will be decisive for the correlation of forces of the next government.
For many analysts, the election for federal deputy in 2026 will also be a test of the electoral strength of parliamentary amendments. There is talk that the amendments will be central to the strategy of connecting parliamentarians with their bases.
Data from Siop, the federal government’s budget website, organized by Joyce Luz and George Avelino Filho, from FGV Cepesp, show that individual parliamentary amendments have a clearly municipal destination. Between 2015 and 2026, 86% of the total amount committed to amendments each year was allocated to municipalities. States received only 13% of the resources.
Deputies prioritize directly serving locations where the political effect can be perceived, claimed and converted into electoral support. At first glance, it would seem that the capitals and large cities, which concentrate the majority of voters in the country, would also concentrate the resources arising from the amendments. That’s not what happens.
The ten cities that most benefited from amendments between 2015 and 2026, together, received only 4.8% of the total allocated to municipalities. Almost half of the municipal values, 49%, were allocated outside the group of 500 largest recipients.
The data contrasts with the distribution of the electorate. The 103 municipalities with more than 200 thousand voters total around 60.5 million voters, 38.8% of the national electorate. Even so, it is outside these large schools that the amendments seem to yield the most.
Recent research by Isabella Montini and Alison Post shows that smaller municipalities receive more projects and resources per capita through individual amendments. The authors’ analyzes indicate that the electoral return of these resources is greater precisely in these places. In cities with less than 50 thousand inhabitants, deputies obtain positive and significant marginal gains in votes. In medium and large municipalities, the effect is much less favorable and may even be negative.
In large cities, voters are exposed to more works, more political actors, more sources of information and more urban problems. A parliamentary amendment is diluted in the budget, the landscape and the dispute for credit. The cost of producing political recognition is greater.
Deputies who go to the polls in October with well-structured municipal networks may have an advantage. It is not enough to have access to resources. It is necessary to know where to apply them and how to convert them into political recognition.
Still, the electoral strength of the amendments should not be overestimated. Small cities can produce important returns, but they concentrate a limited portion of the electorate. Furthermore, if polarization started to organize the vote for majority positions, it remains to be seen to what extent it will also affect the choice for federal deputy.
Amendments help preserve local bases. But they do not eliminate electoral uncertainty nor replace political alignment, party identity and mobilization capacity. In 2026, they will be an important asset. No guarantee of re-election.
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