The involvement of senator and pre-candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), in an alleged negotiation of around R$134 million with former banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance the film “Dark Horse”, about former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), could cause political and electoral strain, especially among moderate voters and allies competing for space in the campaign. The assessment is made by political scientists interviewed by CNN Brazil about the impact of the episode.
For sociologist and political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida, the case tends to intensify internal disputes within Flávio Bolsonaro’s political environment. According to him, the episode opens the door to pressure and bargaining from groups interested in expanding influence in the pre-campaign.
“Everything in Brasília has a price. So, those who are further away from the central core of his candidacy, who make fewer decisions or have less influence, will use this event, and any other similar event, to bargain for more space close to Flávio. The trade-off is not to attack him”, he stated.
Almeida assesses that not all internal conflicts are necessarily negotiable. “Maybe Michelle’s case [Bolsonaro] not be reconcilable. Perhaps she is not simply wanting to bargain for space around Flávio, but other less visible actors are doing this now”, he said.
Despite this, he considers that the impact on public opinion may be less than in past political scandals. For example, after a scandal involving the company Lunus.
“I don’t believe that something similar will happen now. Bolsonaro has a power separate from what existed back then. There was no social media. And when I say Bolsonaro, I’m talking about the two, father and son, who have this strength linked to their media, alternative media and social networks. This is a new power in society”, he highlighted.
Political scientist Leonardo Barreto, partner at the Think Policy consultancy, considers that the main electoral risk lies in the difficulty of expanding support outside the Bolsonaro base.
“There is a very clear prospect of damage, because Flávio Bolsonaro may even be confident that he will not lose many votes in his base of followers and allies inherited from his father, a charismatic leadership more inflexible to this type of event. But he may lose precisely the voter he needs to win the election: the moderate voter”, he explained.
According to Barreto, this group includes undecided or less ideologically aligned voters, capable of migrating between candidacies. “It is that voter who can vote for both him and Lula, often called ‘exempt’. And this voter tends to stay away”, he pointed out.
The analyst also related the episode to the most according to which President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) advanced precisely among moderate voters. “If this is confirmed, Flávio Bolsonaro could crystallize an electoral ceiling. A high ceiling, but insufficient to win the election”, he assessed.
Barreto compared the scenario to the electoral history of former São Paulo mayor, Paulo Maluf. “He often led the first round in São Paulo, but had a low ceiling and ended up defeated in the second round”, he recalled.
In the political scientist’s assessment, this possible electoral limit could compromise Flávio Bolsonaro’s ability to attract alliances and consolidate regional platforms. “This is today the main threat to his electoral viability, precisely when he is looking for allies and trying to expand his coalition”, he concluded.
https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/ouca-o-audio-de-flavio-bolsonaro-pedindo-dinheiro-a-vorcaro/
