It is often said, even by himself, that the and are now the ‘G2’. In this context, his attitude , during his meeting with the US president in Beijing this week, for many analysts it signaled a new balance of power between the world’s two biggest powers.
Unlike Trump, the Chinese leader avoided much flattery and, after the ceremonial honors were over, was quick to clearly delineate his “red lines” in Sino-US relations. At the center, as expected, was Taiwan. Xi made it clear that any rapprochement with Washington could be derailed depending on the US handling of the issue of the self-governing island, which China claims as its own. Calmly and methodically, the Chinese president “sent the message that, despite the serious problems of the Chinese economy, the moment when China functions as an equal superpower vis-à-vis the US has now arrived,” wrote the “New York Times”.
“China First” Doctrine
This stance reflects a deeper shift in China’s strategic thinking under Xi, as explained by the British magazine TIME, which is described as «China First». But the phrase does not have the populist character it has acquired in the West. Instead, it summarizes how Chinese elites perceive the country’s place in the world and its key priorities: reducing dependence on external pressures, maintaining social and political stability, managing (not necessarily resolving) the strategic confrontation with the US, and consolidating Chinese dominance in the wider Asian region.
Globalization, which has been the driving force behind the Chinese economic miracle since the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, is no longer considered only an opportunity, but also a source of vulnerability. Trade wars, geopolitical conflicts and disruption caused by the pandemic have made clear to Beijing the fragility of global supply chains. At the same time, US restrictions on technology and advanced microchips have fueled the belief that dependence on the West can turn into a strategic risk.
The result is a redefinition of how China interacts with the rest of the world. Last March, the Chinese leadership presented the 15th Five-Year Development Plan, for the period 2026-2030. It is indicative of the fact that, in contrast to the plans of previous years, which were mainly aimed at maximizing growth, the new plan clearly places more emphasis on “resilience” and technological autonomy.
The US-Israel war in Iran further reinforced this rationale, reminding China – the world’s largest energy importer – of the dangers of over-reliance on external conditions it cannot control. However, the global uncertainty that characterizes the Trump era has led many US allies to seek alternative points of stability, strengthening, among other things, their relations with China.
In recent months, the French president Emmanuel Macronthe British Prime Minister Keir Starmerthe German chancellor Friedrich Mertz and at least four other foreign leaders from US-allied countries have visited Beijing. And it can “the substantial political and economic weight of many of these bilateral meetings was ultimately limited”as the “Economist” explains, but from the Chinese perspective, it is a great diplomatic success. “Partly the symbolism is enough,” writes the British paper, as successive bilateral visits broadcast, both domestically and internationally, “a strong message about China’s upgraded status as a great power, but also about the reduced credibility of the US as a stable partner”.
Confidence in China’s foreign policy is directly linked to the reshaping of the Chinese political system itself by “modern emperor”as the “Washington Post” calls Xi. With the constitutional change to secure a third consecutive term as Communist Party leader in 2022, Xi overturned the controlled succession model established by Deng Xiaoping. Moreover, since coming to power, Xi has embarked on a relentless consolidation of power – the first Chinese leader since Mao Zedong which amasses such extensive powers. Through his campaigns “anti-corruption”the 72-year-old Xi has been removing or neutralizing political opponents.
The BBC reports that Xi appears to have no internal rivals and no apparent challengers as he controls the world’s second-largest economy and the most powerful armed forces in modern Chinese history.
The other side of superpower
But behind the image of the powerful leader, the country’s economy is showing ever deeper cracks. This is her “the great contradiction of the Xi era”according to the “Wall Street Journal”: China is becoming technologically and militarily stronger, while at the same time domestic economic momentum is weakening. The collapse of the real estate market has resulted in the loss of trillions of dollars, consumer power has taken a severe hit and the job market presents a worrying picture, especially for young people.
Still, Beijing appears reluctant to move ahead with large-scale measures to boost consumption or deeper social reforms that could bolster the middle class. China’s overall social spending remains low for an economy of its size, while uncertainty about the future is driving many households to save instead of consume.
At the same time, the regime’s political narrative often clashes with social reality. Millions of young people are invited to join the so-called “national revitalization” of China, while many of them struggle to find steady work or remain financially dependent on their families. In his latest New Year’s message, Xi avoided mentioning the economic difficulties. Instead, he preferred to highlight the achievements of Chinese power: an advanced aircraft carrier, technological innovations, even robots that perform kung fu moves.
