Atlas/Bloomberg Research released this Tuesday (19) points out that 95.6% of Brazilians were aware of the audio and messages exchanged between Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) and the former banker Daniel Vorcaro. Among them, 51.7% believe that the senator is directly involved in the financial fraud scheme of the Banco Master.
For 33.3% of Brazilians, however, the exchange of messages between Flávio and Vorcaro represents a legitimate attempt by the senator to obtain financial support for the production of the film “Dark Horse”which tells the story of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Another 12.1% of those interviewed believe that the messages and audio exchanged between the senator and the former banker show a close relationship, but without proof of illegality.
This is the first national survey carried out after the release of the messages between Flávio and Vorcaro. Last Wednesday (13), the website Intercept Brasil published documents, messages and an audio in which the senator negotiates with the former banker a transfer of R$ 134 million to finance the film “Dark Horse”.
A few days ago, during an event with supporters in Florianópolis, Flávio wore a shirt with the slogan.
But, according to the Atlas/Bloomberg survey, 43.3% of Brazilians think that Bolsonaro’s allies are the political group most involved in the Banco Master financial fraud scheme, while 32.8% think they are Lula’s allies and 7.1% believe in Centrão.
For another 16.1% of those interviewed, everyone is equally involved in the scheme.
The main line of defense that Flávio and those around him have used to justify exchanging messages with Vorcaro is that the conversations were strictly professional and the leaks were selective, with the aim of damaging the senator’s pre-campaign for the Presidency.
For 54.9% of Brazilians, however, the leak represents “evidence obtained in a legitimate investigation”. Another 33% agree with the senator and believe that the disclosure of the conversations is “an attempt to politically harm Flávio Bolsonaro”. For 9.7% of those interviewed, the two options have the same weight and another 2.5% were unable to answer.
Impact on application
For 45.1% of those interviewed by Atlas/Bloomberg, the disclosure of the messages exchanged between Flávio and Vorcaro “greatly weakened” the senator’s candidacy for the Presidency. For 19%, the episode “weakened it a little”, 15% think it “did not affect the candidacy” and 13.4% believe it “strengthened the candidacy”. Another 7.3% were unable to evaluate.
Despite the weakening reading being greater, the effect appears to have been less impactful among the senator’s electoral base.
3.6% said they were “less willing to vote” for the senator after the episode, and 9.4% said they were “much less willing to vote”. Another 47.1% would no longer vote for Flávio anyway, while 21% said that the messages “do not affect” the voting disposition.
There is also a percentage of 13.7% of those interviewed who felt “much more willing to vote” for Flávio after the exchanged messages were released, with a further 5.1% who declared themselves “more willing to vote” for the senator for the same reason.
5,032 people were interviewed, through random digital recruitment (Atlas RDR), between May 13th and 18th. The margin of error is one percentage point, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level.
The research was carried out with the institute’s own resources and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol BR-06939/2026.
