- After a variable spring, summer 2026 is shaping up to be warmer than usual, with temperatures above average.
- June will bring more warmth, and July and August will be the hottest, with days above 30°C and tropical nights.
- Local storms with hail and strong winds, as well as periodic cooling are also expected.
- Which regions of Europe will experience extreme heat and where will the risk of fires be greatest?
What will the weather be like for summer 2026? When will the heat come?
Spring 2026 remains a classic so far. After a rather warm and sunny March, a cool and windy April came. The weather forecast for the first long weekend of the season is also not optimistic. Temperatures will not be pleasant, and rain may occur in many areas. Forecasters indicate that the weather in May 2026 will be 10-13 degrees Celsius.
The latest weather models indicate that summer 2026 will be hot with temperatures slightly above normal. However, the deviation will not be high and may amount to as little as 1 degree Celsius. Similar data was presented by IMWM. According to their forecasts, June 2026 will be much warmer, but in July the weather will return to the average norm from recent years.
for summer 2026 indicate that we will have days with heat and temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius. However, local cooling and gusty storms may occur. Tropical nights will also be more frequent, i.e. nights when the temperature does not drop below 20 degrees, which can be troublesome, especially in large cities. After periods of heat, there will be storms with downpours, hail and strong winds. Flooding is possible locally. June may be more variable, with alternating warm days and colder periods, while July and August promise to be the most stable, but also the hottest months.
Weather for summer 2026 in Europe. Where will it be the warmest?
and the south of Europe is preparing for a real furnace. In Spain, Italy and Greece, temperatures may regularly exceed 35 degrees, and heatwaves will be longer than in previous years. Even record temperatures and an increased risk of forest fires are possible in some regions
Western Europe, including France and Germany, will also feel the effects of warming. Summer there is expected to be very warm, but more humid than in the south. This means frequent storms and heavy rainfall
In northern Europe, in Scandinavia, temperatures will be higher than usual, but without extreme heat. The summer there promises to be milder, although with more rainfall.
Global health threats: Forecasts of hot summer 2026 in the light of the Lancet Countdown report
As we prepare for what’s expected to be record-breaking temperatures and tropical nights, the latest 2024 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change sheds new light on the global context. The study, a collaboration of more than 300 multidisciplinary researchers, warns that the world is dangerously close to exceeding the 1.5°C temperature increase target, with 2023 seeing record average surface temperatures. These extreme weather conditions are already having a dramatic impact on the health and lives of people around the world. The report’s conclusions show a record increase in heat-related mortality (up 167% in people over 65 years of age compared to the 1990s), a significant decline in sleep quality (6% more hours of sleep lost due to heat in 2023) and a decline in outdoor physical activity. Moreover, exposure to extreme heat in 2023 has decreased people’s well-being expressed online at record levels, highlighting the broad spectrum of negative consequences.
The Lancet Countdown report emphasizes that the observed climate changes, such as droughts (48% of the global land area affected in 2023) and extreme rainfall (an increase in 61% of the land area), not only directly threaten life, but also favor the spread of infectious diseases such as dengue, malaria and West Nile virus in regions previously unaffected by them. Moreover, these changes are leading to significant economic losses – average annual economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased to $227 billion, and losses in potential work hours due to heat reached a record $835 billion in 2023. The study clearly shows that current adaptation efforts are insufficient, and delays in mitigation actions deepen global inequalities in access to health care. The forecasts for Poland for summer 2026 are therefore part of a broader, alarming trend, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive actions that go beyond short-term weather forecasts and focus on long-term protection of public health.
Impact of extreme weather on tourism: Highlanders and Arab tourists in summer 2026
The forecasted heatwaves may seriously disrupt the plans of the Polish tourism industry, especially in Podhale. For years, highlanders have been accustomed to the summer arrival of tourists from Middle Eastern countries who seek respite from the extreme temperatures in the Polish mountains. However, if the summer of 2026 in Poland also turns out to be record hot, our country may lose its attractiveness. Arab tourists, instead of spending their holidays in hot Zakopane, can choose cooler destinations such as Scandinavia.
This may mean serious losses for the local economy. Empty guesthouses, less traffic in restaurants and on trails are the scenario that entrepreneurs from southern Poland fear. Climate change not only affects the weather, but also has an increasingly visible impact on global tourist trends, which poses new, unexpected challenges for Polish regions.
How to prepare for heat, storms and tropical nights in summer 2026?
The announced heat waves and violent weather phenomena require appropriate preparation to minimize their negative effects on health and well-being. First of all, you should ensure proper hydration of your body by drinking plenty of water and avoiding drinks with alcohol or caffeine. During the hottest hours of the day, i.e. between 11:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m., it is worth limiting exposure to the sun and refraining from intense physical activity. You will also need to protect your head and wear light, airy clothing in light colors.
Troublesome tropical nights, when the temperature does not drop below 20°C, are another challenge. To ensure a comfortable sleep, it is worth covering the windows during the day to avoid heating up the apartment. In the evening, you can cool the bed linen or take a cool shower before going to bed. You should also remember about safety during storms – avoid open spaces, do not hide under trees and secure items on balconies that could be carried away by strong winds.
Summer 2026 in a historical context: Will we break records?
Forecasters are increasingly boldly suggesting that the summer of 2026 has a chance to go down in the history of Polish meteorology. It is no longer just about single days with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius, but about the length and intensity of heat waves. There is a real probability that records will be broken not only regarding maximum temperatures in July and August, but also the number of hot days in a row and the number of tropical nights in a season.
This perspective fits into the global warming trend that we have been observing for years. Increasingly frequent and severe weather extremes are becoming the new norm. If the forecasts are confirmed, summer 2026 will not only be a challenge for residents and the economy, but also another strong signal that climate change is accelerating and its effects are felt here and now.
