Benjamin Netanyahu
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish faction — traditionally a close political ally of Netanyahu — no longer sees Netanyahu as a partner and seeks to force early elections. The project was approved, but there are still some steps left.
A proposal to dissolve Israel’s Parliament was approved in a preliminary vote on Wednesday.
In the vote, 110 out of 120 Knesset deputies supported the government coalition’s proposal, thus taking a first step towards a possible early election. The measure, which has the support of the opposition, will still have to go through three more readings before coming into force.
The next steps
After being approved in Wednesday’s preliminary vote, the bill now goes to a committee, which will define the election date.
Then you will have to go through three more parliamentary votes until final approval, with the third requiring a 61-vote majority among the 120 Knesset members. The process can be quick or take several weeks.
If the proposal is definitively approved, this will automatically trigger the carrying out of elections within 90 days.
Does the election already have a date?
A date for the next election has not yet been set. Israel must hold elections every four years, but early elections have been frequent. The last elections were held in November 2022, and the next vote is scheduled to take place, at the latest, by October 27th.
If MPs vote in favor of dissolving Parliament, a parliamentary committee will still have to determine the date.
According to Israeli press reports, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners favor an election date in early September, while Netanyahu will prefer a later vote.
Political commentators in Israel say the election could take place between the first half of September and the end of October.
Why Parliament voted in favor of dissolution
The vote took place now because a ultra-Orthodox Jewish faction — traditionally a close political ally of Netanyahu — announced this month that it no longer sees the prime minister as a partner and will seek to force early elections.
The ultra-Orthodox leaders have declared that they are acting this way because Netanyahu’s coalition didn’t keep the promise to pass a law that would exempt his community from mandatory military service.
The issue has become a point of friction in Israel, in a context of severe shortage of combat soldiers and shift in public sentiment following the Hamas-led terrorist attacks on October 7, 2023.
Taking advantage of the split in the Government, the opposition parties announced their intention to present bills to dissolve the Knesset. Opposition parties have been trying to overthrow Netanyahu’s government for a long time. An attempt in this direction, carried out last June, failed. This time, however, success — even though, in practice, it only brings the election forward by a few weeks — could give new impetus to the opposition’s campaign and limit the coalition’s ability to promote any controversial legislation until then.
In an attempt to control the process, the coalition presented its own bill to dissolve the Knesset on May 13.
What are Netanyahu’s hypotheses?
Less than a year after his political return, in 2022, at the head of the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, the credibility of Netanyahu’s security policy was shattered by Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7, 2023. Many Israelis hold Netanyahu responsible for the security failure that made the attack possible.
Since then, research has consistently shown that Netanyahu’s government coalition falls far short of a parliamentary majority. But there is also the possibility that the opposition parties will not be able to form a coalition, leaving Netanyahu at the head of a management government until the political impasse is overcome.
This has happened before. Ahead of the 2022 elections, Israel was trapped in a series of inconclusive elections, holding five votes in less than four years.
Who else is in the race
Netanyahu’s main opponent is Naftali Bennett, a former advisor who removed, in the 2021 elections, the leader with the longest term in Israel’s history and became Prime Minister himself.
Bennett, on the right, joined forces with the leader of the center-left opposition, Yair Lapidto form a political alliance, Juntos, which is now competing vote by vote with Netanyahu’s Likud.
Another candidate who has gained strength in the polls is the former military leader and centrist minister Years in Eisenkot.
They are all running on similar campaign platforms, seeking to mobilize voters who are undecided and disillusioned with Netanyahu, through messages that aim to heal divisions and put the country back on track after the trauma of October 7th and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which affected Israel’s economy and international image.
What else can influence voters
Netanyahu faces a corruption trial which has been going on for a long time. Israeli President Isaac Herzog is mediating talks to negotiate a plea deal in the case — an outcome that could lead Netanyahu, 76, to withdraw from politics as part of any understanding.
The possibility of such a deal has been raised since the start of his trial six years ago, but it is unclear whether the prime minister would accept it.
A Netanyahu’s health may also be a relevant factor. He recently revealed that he had undergone successful treatment for prostate cancer and, in 2023, received a pacemaker.
Israel has also been in guerra with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran — fronts that remain volatile and could have an impact on an election.
A survey carried out by Israel’s public broadcaster placed the LikudNetanyahu’s party, in first place in voting intentions, with a small advantage over Juntos.
