For months now, the US government has been talking about regime change to communism, possibly even through military intervention. Although the US president has stated that “escalation” will not be necessary, he has also declared that he will not tolerate a “pariah state” just 90 miles (144 kilometers) from the US coast. Meanwhile, Cuba is in economic paralysis, with no fuel, no food, no medicine. Its communist regime remains repressive, amid the country’s worst humanitarian crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Given these conditions, the BBC “sees” three scenarios for developments in Cuba: first, US military intervention and the arrest of former Cuban leader Raul Castro, second, unrest and a change of government in Cuba from within, and third, economic collapse of Cuba.
First scenario: the US captures Raul Castro
On January 3, US commandos carried out a blitzkrieg operation in Venezuela, arresting the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, a long-time ally of Cuba, and transporting him to New York to stand trial on drug and arms-trafficking charges. “No possibility should be ruled out,” said Florida Republican Senator Rick Scott. “What happened to Maduro should also happen to Raul Castro.”
On May 20, the US Department of Justice brought charges against Raul Castro, Fidel’s brother, 94 years old and former “eternal” Minister of Defense of Cuba, for the shooting down, in 1996, of two civilian planes belonging to the humanitarian organization Brothers to the Rescue, in which Americans were also on board.
According to experts, from a military point of view, an operation to capture Raul Castro is feasible but would involve serious risks and complications, including his advanced age and possible Cuban resistance.
Second scenario: The US seeks leadership change in Havana from within
One scenario favored by US officials – including Trump – is for him to assume new leadership in Havana. The plan is similar to the replacement of Maduro by Venezuelan Vice President Delsy Rodriguez, whose government is now working with the US. Trump has repeatedly said he is talking to people in Cuba who hope for American aid. “Cuba is asking for help and we will talk,” he wrote on his platform, Truth Social, on May 12.
On May 21, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the US administration’s preference is to “negotiate a deal” with Havana. The changes the US wants include a commitment by Cuba to open its economy, attract more foreign investment and involve Cuban exile groups, as well as a commitment by Havana to end the presence of Russian or Chinese intelligence agencies on the island.
These changes would leave the Cuban government largely intact. “Just as the US wanted to avoid instability in Venezuela, in a similar way, they want to avoid instability in Cuba,” Michael Shifter, professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University, told the BBC. But many experts emphasize that in Cuba there is no obvious political figure, ready to take power.
Third scenario: Cuba collapses
The third possibility is that Cuba will buckle under the weight of the enormous economic pressure it faces, which has already led to daily long-hour blackouts and severe food shortages on the island. Trump has stated that there will be no escalation with Cuba, precisely because the country is collapsing. However, experts describe a much more complex picture, in which the Cuban regime’s control mechanisms over the population remain largely strong, despite extremely difficult economic conditions. A possible collapse of Cuba could create a problem for the Trump administration if large numbers of Cubans leave the country, heading for the US.
Why the US is showing restraint on Cuba
According to the French newspaper Le Monde, the only reason the US is currently showing restraint in relation to Cuba is the war in Iran. In a New York Times/Siena poll, (18/5/2026) 64% of Americans consider Trump’s decision to attack Iran wrong. Among independent voters, a group especially critical ahead of the midterm elections for the US Congress on November 3, the percentage of Americans who have the same negative opinion about the war in Iran is 73%.
CIA chief visits Havana
On May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba where he held talks with Cuban officials, including Interior Minister Lazaro Alvarez Casas. Ratcliffe’s visit was seen as a kind of warning to Cuba. The State Department also proposed $100 million (€85 million) in emergency humanitarian aid, which would be distributed through non-governmental organizations, mainly the Catholic Church. Initially, the Cuban regime appeared negative, but according to some media (Reuters), it seems that it may finally accept American aid.
Cuba’s Major Threats Against the US- Drones Against the US Guantanamo Base
On May 18, the State Department added the names of three government entities and eleven individuals to the list of those subject to US sanctions. According to Marco Rubio, the addition of these is part of the “campaign to address major security threats posed by the communist regime of Cuba”.
The major threats concern the revelation, a day earlier, on May 17, by the website Axios, that Cuba has acquired, over the past three years, 300 military drones from Russia and Iran. Hidden on the island, they could be used in an attack on the US base at Guantanamo Bay. As part of traditional relations with Moscow, Havana has also reportedly sent 5,000 men to fight in Ukraine. The alleged acquisition of the drones gave the American government the opportunity to present as urgent the need to overthrow the Cuban regime.
