Qatar, Pakistan and Türkiye become central players in mediating great power wars

With the rise of armed conflicts around the world, countries such as Pakistan, Qatar and Türkiye have become central players in mediating wars. On February 28, the United States and Israel began a series of attacks against Iran with the aim of inhibiting further developments in the country’s nuclear program.

Since then, the Iranian regime has lost its lSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, part of his family and more than 5 thousand people who, according to data compiled by the Reuters news agency on April 2, died in the clashes.

Pakistan, an Asian country that borders southern Iran, has been the diplomatic center mediating this conflict. According to professor and doctor in International Relations Sidney Ferreira Leite, Pakistan is a “essential political bridge to crises involving Asian actors and long-term insurgencies” and that the mediation it promotes for the ceasefire between Iran and the US goes beyond traditional geopolitics.

Sidney states that reducing mediation conversations to “Great Power Chess” is a mistake, since there are three “invisible layers” that guide the success of agreements and the good positioning of these countries that serve as “appeasers”:

• identity;
• internal security;
• prestige.

Islamabadcapital of Pakistan, was the mediator in the conflict between the United States and Iran. On Saturday (23), the President of the United States, Donald Trump, held a call in the Oval Office of the White House with Middle East leaders to discuss a memorandum of understanding aimed at peace with the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to the Republican, “the final details of the understanding are still under discussion and should be announced soon”, he highlights. Among the main points of the agreement, according to Trump, is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global oil trade. Iran and the United States have had a ceasefire since April 7th.

Vitelio Brustolin, researcher and professor of International Relations at Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), explained that “for Pakistan, war is not a distant event. It has a sensitive border, shares almost 1000 km of border with Iran, so any destabilization generates a flow of refugees and a security risk in the Baluchistan region”, said the researcher.

Brustolin also says that there is also an issue of energy dependence. “Pakistan imports almost all of its oil and gas from Gulf countries. In a war that closes the Strait of Hormuz, like this one, it ends up paralyzing a large part of the Pakistani economy almost instantly.”

Professor Sidney, in turn, highlights other countries that behave as conflict mediators. Qatar and Turkey, for example, according to Sidney, use this peace diplomacy to “consolidate leadership in the Islamic world and project ‘soft power’ (the ability of a country to influence the behavior and decisions of other nations) that compensates for its territorial limitations”.

Furthermore, the professor highlights the need to stabilize the region of each mediating territory as a “self-defense” to avoid refugee crises and energy shocks (such as the increase in fuel prices) that would knock directly on their doors.

The researcher at the International Relations Research Center at the University of São Paulo (USP) and also professor of the subject, Isabelle C. Somma de Castro, states that the three countries have a great interest in ending the war.

Regarding Pakistan, Isabelle says that the current interest in normalizing the country’s oil supply as quickly as possible is very clear. “It is extremely dependent on fuel supplied by Persian Gulf countries. Recently, the Pakistanis formalized a security agreement with Saudi Arabia and, therefore, its diplomatic importance has increased”stated the researcher. “The Saudis are an economic and political force in the region and provide legitimacy to the Pakistani government’s efforts,” he added.

Qatar and Türkiye

Unlike Pakistan, Sidney says that Qatar “has turned mediation into an ‘export product’” to maintain open dialogue with groups that the West ignores, such as Hamas.

With the war triggered after attacks by the Islamic group Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023, Qatar actively participates in the mediation of the conflict which, despite having already determined its still generates

Qatar has also spoken out in relation to the US x Iran conflict, seeking a ceasefire. On April 15, the Qatari emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, spoke by telephone with US President Donald Trump about the war and called for a reduction in tensions, the emir’s office said.

The two leaders discussed the consequences of the escalating conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and global supply chains. “His Highness also emphasized the importance of intensifying international efforts to avoid further escalation in the region“, says the Qatari statement.

Professor Isabelle states that the Qatar has already operated as a conflict mediator for at least two decades and has accumulated experience in the matter. “The country is interested in being an influential actor in peace negotiations in order to increase its importance on the global stage,” he explained.

Researcher Vitelio explained that the mobilization of Qatar and Turkey is driven by a mix of economic survival, religious identity and even border security.

“There is Sunni and Shiite unity, because although Pakistan and Turkey have a Sunni majority and Iran has a Shiite majority, cooperation aims to prevent religious sectarianism from worsening the war, focusing on Islamic fraternity to stabilize the region”, he points out.

Regarding Turkey, Professor Sidney characterizes it as a country “heavyweight mediator” which operates on the border between NATO and Russia and mixes pragmatism with regional ambition.

Also on April 15, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the country’s capital, Ankara, was working to extend the ceasefire between the United States and Iran to ensure the continuity of negotiations, adding that the country is “hopeful” regarding the talks.

For researcher Isabelle, Turkey, In addition to the interest in resolving the conflict involving a neighbor, there is the ambition to become an essential actor in decisions involving the region.

“Ankara has stable diplomatic relations with everyone involved and for this reason it also presents itself as a reliable mediator. And, obviously, the need to resolve the economic issue – normalizing the supply of oil and gas from the region – makes its involvement opportune”, he concludes.

Turkey, which is Iran’s neighbor, has maintained diplomatic closeness with the US, Iran and Pakistan, which is the main mediator in the conflict. The country has repeatedly called for an end to the war.

Escalation to the position of mediators

Professor Sidney stated, however, that trust between rivals in these conflict mediating countries was not achieved by luck. “It was due to investment in reputation capital. They apply the golden rule of modern diplomacy: keep channels open with everyone, without total alignments.” In this way, by avoiding clear enemies and investing in humanitarian aid, these countries “become ‘indispensable facilitators’ and offer what great powers often cannot: functional neutrality and direct access”, explains Sidney.

Furthermore, the interest in being a mediating power goes beyond the search for peace. Sidney guarantees that the movement is not a “act of altruism” and yes one “power tool”.

“By sitting at the table, the country guarantees protection against international isolation, attracts investments and gains relevance in the global dispute between the USA and China. In a fragmented international system, being the ‘conduit’ between rivals is the most valuable life insurance a State can have”, concludes the professor.

Vitelio says that mediations do not follow a fixed manual but they tend to start with subtle signs and then evolve into a more rigorous bureaucratic structure. “The process is a mix of behind-the-scenes diplomacy and international protocols”, he explains.

The researcher adds that there is a question of Islamic solidarity and status. “There is a symbolic charge of identity in mediation. The issue of leadership in the Muslim world because Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar seek to position themselves as natural leaders of the Islamic world, so mediating a conflict between a Western power and a Muslim nation, such as Iran, reinforces this image of protectors of regional peace”, he explains.

The UFF professor uses Qatar as an example of how early mediation practices work. “The country sends a private emissary, or makes an informal call to feel the temperature and the mediator identifies a point where two enemies agree – such as prisoner exchange or humanitarian aid, to open dialogue.”

Furthermore, Vitelio explains that there is the question of the invitation or offer. “Either the conflicting parties ask for help from a neighbor considered ‘neutral’ or the mediator publicly offers to prevent war from reaching its own borders.”

As for Isabelle, these negotiations are carried out at a high level, involving the leaders of each country. “As there is no official procedure, the initial conversations are held behind the scenes and, with the agreement of those involved, they present themselves as mediators”, points out the teacher.

She further explains that each country has its specific interest and it is these interests that make them get involved or not, but that Qatar has its own particularity.”In the specific case of Qatar it is different, as the country wants be known as an actor specialized in conflict resolution, even if this participation does not give much fanfare to their efforts”, says the teacher.

Finally, the teacher recalls other peace agreements, such as the one concluded by Qatari diplomacy: the Doha agreement, in 2021, which sealed peace between the Americans and the Taliban. There was also an attempted nuclear agreement with Iran, led by Brazil in 2010, and with the participation of Türkiye. “The agreement was finalized, but the Barack Obama government refused to accept the coordination promoted by both countries,” he explained.