The NYT report that has Americans and Israelis plotting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s return to the presidency of Iran as an alternative to the existing regime looks like it came straight out of the pages of a John Le Carré political thriller.
This is a variant of the Venezuela scenario where a above suspicion regime man would take power with the blessings of those who bombed it, in order to serve the plans of a wider geopolitical upheaval.
It is alleged that the former president, a Holocaust denier and “father” of Iran’s nuclear program, was in contact with Western actors, conspiring to overthrow those who had excluded him from political life for a decade and placed him under house arrest.
It is possible that Ahmadinejad was at one end of one of the so-called alternative communication channels that operate in every international crisis.
But according to the American newspaper, the bombs that killed his guards and wounded him simultaneously destroyed any ambitions that Ahmadinejad had, who is now missing, perhaps imprisoned, if he has not already been executed. Whatever the truth, the Ahmadinejad case shows that it is not only who is talking to whom that matters, but also what is being said officially and – above all, unofficially, by both the overt and the invisible protagonists of international crises
USA – ISRAEL – IRAN
One of the “hardest” of the Islamic regime, the president of the Parliament Mohammad Ghalibafnow has the negotiation with the US in his hands. Flesh from the flesh of the Revolutionary Guards, Ghalibaf belongs to the group that appointed as the new supreme leader of the country Moztaba Khameneison of the ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed by the bombing on the first day of the war.
Moztaba was likely injured in the same attack and has not made any public appearances since, other than issuing statements. Through Ghalibaf, the hard core of the regime exercises control over the foreign minister Abbas Aragchieven to the president Massoud Pezeskianso that they don’t “go astray” in the negotiation with the Americans.
Accordingly, the president Donald Trump relies not on veteran State Department diplomats, but on special envoys such as businessman Steve Witkoff and son-in-law of the US president, Jared Kushnerwho maintains close personal relations with almost all the leaders of the Arab Gulf monarchies as well as the Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu.
The same trusted people are called upon to repair the damage from Trump’s rhetorical outbursts, such as that Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman was forced “to kiss Mr…” or that his friend Bibi “he’ll do whatever he’s told.”
TURKEY – ISRAEL – HAMAS
Ankara is among the Allies in the Persian Gulf War but is trying to turn the predicament into an advantage by using all its reserves of diplomatic influence and intelligence power. Last March the leader of MIT, Ibrahim Kalinwelcomed in Istanbul the leadership of Hamas, with whom he is anyway in constant contact.
The meeting was clearly held to send the message that Turkey has a say in what is happening in Gaza and the wider region and that it insists on the line of confrontation with Israel while participating in Trump’s Peace Council. His government Recep Tayyip Erdogan since 2011 it has hosted leaders of Hamas, which uses Turkey as an operational base.
President Erdogan has announced from May 2024 the cessation of all trade relations with Israel, but trade continues through third countries, sometimes in the name of transporting products intended for the Occupied Territories but ending up on the Israeli market. The most important asset for Turkey is the good personal relationship between Erdogan and Trump, to such an extent that the US president has repeatedly asked the Israeli prime minister to “get it right” with Ankara.
In this context, the American ambassador in Ankara, Tom Barakcan act as an intermediary in Turkey’s difficult relationship with Israel. Barak is a businessman and personal friend of Trump, who has also appointed him as special envoy for Syria and Iraq.
EU – RUSSIA
The ice in relations between the EU and Russia has lasted for more than four years, as has the war in Ukraine. But the direct bargain between the Russian president Vladimir Putin and Trump’s as well as the risk of finding the Europeans premature, combined with the protracted energy crisis, led to second thoughts in Brussels who are now looking for the right person to represent the EU in direct dialogue with the Kremlin.
Among others, the names of the former president of the European Central Bank are mentioned Mario Draghi and the former chancellor of Germany Angela Merkelwithout excluding other persons who would combine technocratic knowledge with political experience, such as the president of Finland Alexander Stubb and his predecessor Sauli Niinisto. Merkel stated that there are probably people better suited than her for the position.
Russian media speak of “humiliation” of the Europeans. Putin would probably prefer (and has suggested) the former chancellor as an interlocutor Gerhard Schroederwho, after leaving active German politics, assumed senior roles in Russian energy groups. But this is precisely the reason why Schroeder is considered “burnt paper” by European governments and, of course, by Kiev.
The “resumes” of the candidates and the framework of action of the chosen one will be put on the table of the EU summit in mid-June. “Before we talk to the Russians, we should discuss with each other and agree on what things we will talk about with the Russians,” said the head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kalas.
RUSSIA – UKRAINE
From the first months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, foreign correspondents on the front lines found that local commanders on both sides frequently spoke on the radio to agree, for example, to a short-term truce to take wounded men out of the trenches. This model does not apply to the big open issues, where the US has emerged as the main mediator between Moscow and Kiev. But the president’s chief of staff Volodymyr Zelensky and former head of military counterintelligence, Kirill Budanovsaid he still maintains contacts with influential people on the other side, who know the strengths, weaknesses and “red lines” of Russian negotiators.
Budanov had built a system of informal contacts and negotiations for the exchange of prisoners, which could prove valuable in peace talks. “We’ve dealt with them for years, so trust me I know how to talk to them” Budanov said a few days ago to the “Times” of London.
USA – CHINA
President Trump’s visit to Beijing showed that the US has no need for mediators in the trade war with its arch-rival. This does not mean that side communication channels do not operate, which resolve “misunderstandings” and bet on the development of mutually beneficial solutions. Despite Trump’s big words and generals’ objections, the economies of the two countries are much more closely linked than those who see China as an awe-inspiring rival militarily would like.
Trump was accompanied to Beijing by the cream of American businessmen, from Elon Musk and him Tim Cook to the CEO of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon. Although no major agreement was announced in Beijing, it is clear that the “calm waters” are in favor of financial giants that produce products in China or cooperate with local companies and bet on its vast market (Apple, Intel, Tesla, General Motors, Nike, Starbucks, Coca Cola, Walt Disney, etc.).
CHINA – TAIWAN
Any mention of the Taiwan issue by a foreign official is always met with great suspicion by his Chinese interlocutors. Accepting the “One China” policy and condemning Taiwan’s “separatists” is the cornerstone of Beijing’s policy, which the president made clear Xi Jinping to its American counterpart. However, China and Taiwan maintain informal channels through semi-official bodies that coordinate commercial exchanges and contacts between related persons.
Last April, a historic meeting was covered by the international press. OR Cheng Li Wunchairman of the opposition nationalist Kuomintang party (which founded and ruled Taiwan in an autocratic manner for decades), made a multi-day visit to China and was received in Beijing by President Xi. Now President Trump on the one hand is urging Taiwan’s leadership to tone down the tone towards China and on the other hand is saying that the agreement to sell Taiwan a $16 billion defense package will go ahead. The US president has said he intends to “talk” to Taiwan, something the White House has avoided doing publicly for decades to avoid provoking China.
USA – CUBA
“Cuba is asking for help and we will talk with them” President Trump said on May 12. A few days later, the head of the CIA John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana, where he met with his Cuban counterpart as well as Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castrograndson and right-hand man of the former president Raul Castro.
The visit set off a Venezuela-style scenario, as the US immediately indicted the former president for shooting down two small planes and killing four deputies during the refugee crisis three decades ago, when Raúl was defense minister and his brother Fidel Castro head of state. Could Castro’s grandson take the reins of the country from the 94-year-old current president Miguel Diaz Canel with the support of the USA, as did Delsey Rodriguez in Venezuela?
The Americans demand “reforms” in Cuba in exchange for humanitarian aid, in order to deal with the consequences of the economic and energy strangulation they are imposing. The demand remains for regime change in Havana, one way or another. What the Trump administration would like to avoid at all costs is a mass exodus of Cubans to Florida.
This is the true “threat to national security” invoked by the Secretary of State Marco Rubiowho is originally from Cuba and maintains close ties to Cuban dissidents in Miami. Rubio had met with his grandson Raul Castro on the sidelines of a summit of the Caribbean countries last February.
