Nothing points to a detente in the war against Ukraine unleashed by Vladimir Putin. The bombings on kyiv or the Ukrainian drones allegedly ‘diverted’ by Russian electronic systems towards the Baltic countries bring the war dangerously close to the territory of the I’LL TAKE. This week we moved from theoretical alarms to a bath of reality, with the impact of a Russian drone on a building in Romania.
“Russia is in a dead end. Moscow imposes terror with attacks on the Ukrainian civilian population and threats to other countries,” said the head of European diplomacy a few days ago, Kaja Kallafrom the German weekly The mirror. NATO’s response to a Russian attack would have “devastating” consequences, Kallas added. It is a phrase practically identical to those uttered by the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutteand the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubioat the Alliance ministerial meeting held on May 22 in Helsingborg, Sweden.
Both the Baltic and Nordic countries, as well as Poland and Germany, take the threat of a war getting closer. This is reflected in decisions adopted at national level or in other formats. Norwayfrom its status as a non-EU country, has embraced the French nuclear umbrella powered by Emmanuel Macronalthough formally it continues to trust the atomic deterrent strategy in the great transatlantic ally that is the United States; The Baltic states demand more resources from some Ukrainian drones hacked by Russia and become a threat to Western allies more loyal to kyiv; and Germany has added civil protection to a ‘shopping basket’ that until now focused on rearmament.
Cohesion of the Nordic bloc
Two years after the accelerated entry of Sweden and Finland in NATOthe set of Nordic countries that complete Norway, Denmark and the somewhat more remote Iceland do not seem exactly relaxed. All of them have modern and highly technical armies, in addition to a solid network of bunkers that, in the Finnish case, would protect almost 90% of its population. From the meeting in Helsingborg emerged the declaration of the ‘Arctic Seven’ – the five European countries mentioned, plus Canada and the US -, with the commitment to strengthen the Arctic Sentry, NATO’s surveillance operationreleased at the beginning of the year. The group, from which Russia was excluded after the invasion of Ukraine, develops its own strategies, framed within NATO as a whole.
Icelandfor its part, will submit to referendum On August 29, the resumption of negotiations of accession to the EU. The process was frozen in 2013 by an Icelandic decision. Among its population, which until now was reluctant to join, a possible favorable turn is suddenly perceived. There is a desire for cohesion before the pulse for the arctic control among the three giants, Russia, China and the US. In non-EU Norway, the debate on membership was also reopened, in this case promoted by the opposition.
The Baltics, kyiv’s allies at the mercy of their drones
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia they claim from the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyenmore than just words of support in the face of the repeated falls or demolitions of Ukrainian drones in their territory. The skies of the Baltic space are not safe, they suffer daily “drone incursions, electronic interference, disinformation campaigns and sabotage”, which shows “how close we are to war,” warned the Lithuanian president, Gitanas Nauseda.. Apremian a Brussels to an “as rapid as possible” implementation of the Eastern Flank Surveillance mission to improve anti-aircraft defenses and drone interception systems.
The three Baltic countries recognize that Ukraine cannot give up its drones. But they are looking for quick solutions to those daily alarms that have forced the population of Lithuania to retreat to shelters. In Latviathe drone crisis has cost the prime minister her job, Evike Silina, whose coalition collapsed amid reproaches against its Defense Minister, Andris Spruds. In Estonia One of the most vulnerable points of the EU is located, the city of Narva, bordering Russia and where 90% of the population is of Russian origin. There is a “growing strategy coming from Moscow to destabilize our democracies,” Estonian President Alar Karins told Von der Leyen.
Germany and nostalgia for the bunker
The Government of Friedrich Merz has flaunted cold blood before Donald’s decision Trump to withdraw 5,000 soldiers from their bases in Germany. The total number of US military personnel in the country is estimated at 36,000 and Ramstein, the largest US base outside its territory, is the backbone for its operations in the Middle East. There is much more concern in Berlin that Trump has backed out of the pact reached with Joe Biden in the White House to deploy long-range missiles in Germany. Tomahawkwhich would provide theoretical protection compared to their Russian equivalents in Kaliningrad.
Merz came to power in 2025 determined to give Germany the most powerful conventional army in the EU. Defense spending will skyrocket in 2027 by 28%, despite the country’s economic stagnation, thanks to the fact that this item has been released from the so-called “debt brake.” Merz has added 10 billion euros for civil protection to the rearmament plans. It corresponded to the Ministers of Defense, Boris Pistorius, and Minister of the Interior, Alexander Dobrindt, stage the presentation of the plan that will involve greater coordination between armed forces and civil protection personnel. The reality is that Germany does not have a network of underground shelters, 30 meters below the ground, like the one in Finland. Of the 2,000 bunkers it had during the Cold War, only 600 remain. And the subways, basements and other potential shelters would not protect its population from current weapons.
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