The State Department’s decision is the major focus of debate on the networks in recent days.
Secretary Marco Rubio’s announcement came two days after Presidential pre-candidate said he was at the White House. This fact served to stifle the negativity that had been brought to the former president’s son.
From May 27th to 30th, it was the most mentioned name in the discussion section and appeared in almost 6 out of every 10 messages, compared to around 4 out of 10 for Flávio.
According to , which carries out real-time monitoring in more than 100,000 public Telegram groups, mentions of PCC and Comando Vermelho were marginal until the night of May 28, when news of the classification spread.
From 7pm onwards and with the announcement released by the Brazilian press, the number of mentions skyrocketed, and the topic began to dominate on the 29th. Lula and Flávio accounted for 85% of the entire discussion, with both appearing together in approximately 18% of the messages.
Among those who took a stand, the tone against Lula was quite negative, with more than 8 out of 10 statements about the president being negative.
Three narratives are predominant in the Bolsonarist camp. The first, the most widespread, treats the measure as validation of the arguments of the right, which it considers terrorists. The second praises the “strength” of Flávio, who would have managed to obtain a victory with . The third as proof that the government relativizes crime and protects criminals.
On the other side, the government camp also organized itself, but to a much lesser extent. The main argument is the issue of sovereignty, the idea that Brazil cannot be and that the classification opens the door for foreign intervention, the same speech that Lula had already used against the 2025 tariff.
The second accuses Flávio of anti-patriotism and treason, for “handing over Brazil” to the United States in an internal matter. The third turns the security game around and asks whether Americans would also classify .
While the feeling about Flávio Bolsonaro is around 54% of negative mentions, Lula is mostly attacked. Bolsonarism gained from Trump the opportunity to change the issue that was putting Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign at risk, at the cost of exposing himself to the accusation of activating a foreign power against a domestic problem.
Lula, in turn, found where he could unite the base and expand the discourse, transforming Flávio into a “delivery supporter”. Lula’s strategy worked in the case of tariffs, but as the current issue is public security, the repercussions could be different.
In the coming weeks, both sides will try to work out the narratives. On the side of the Bolsonarist right, the focus should be on celebrating Flávio’s demonstration of strength and pointing out what would be a defeat for Lula, trying to link him to the . As for the government, try to point out that the measure is negative for the country and that Flávio violates national sovereignty with his actions.
While we need to wait for the next few weeks to understand the real repercussions, what is known is that the issue, at least momentarily, served to stifle the crisis in which Flávio Bolsonaro found himself due to his relationship with Vorcaro, from . And, with the fiercer polarization, the scenario is also unfavorable for the other candidates.
It remains to be seen how these topics will be discussed and worked on during the conference, which begins in two weeks.
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