The 2026 presidential race must be fought in an economy heated by a series of measures to stimulate credit, income and consumption. But the winner of the election may find a different reality when taking over the Palácio do Planalto in January 2027.
The assessment carried out by experts in the Risk Map, a policy program for the InfoMoneyis that much of the growth projected for this year is being supported by temporary programs, while structural challenges linked to public debt, the federal budget and interest rates remain without a definitive solution.
The result is a scenario in which the economy can arrive strong at the election, but slow down shortly afterwards.
“Any president who is elected, be it Lula or Flávio, will have to deal with this slowdown in the economy. As programs are exhausted and stimuli are left behind, the economy will seem colder than it probably does now”, stated XP political analyst, Vitor Scalet, during his participation in this Friday’s episode (4).
XP’s projection is that the stimuli announced by the government have the potential to generate around R$190 billion and add up to 1.4 percentage points to economic growth in 2026. According to Scalet, more than half of the expansion expected for this year is related to credit measures, income transfers and consumption incentives.
The challenge begins after the inauguration
For experts, the central discussion is not just who will win the election, but what conditions they will find to govern. Political scientist Lara Mesquita, professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), argues that the next president’s first concern should not be economic, but political.
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“The first thing the president will look at the day after the election is which Congress was elected. Which Congress came out of the polls and what can I do with this Congress?”, he stated.
According to her, the institutional scenario has changed significantly in recent years. Congress expanded its influence over the Budget and gained more autonomy in relation to the Executive.
“What we observed in this government is a more programmatic, more ideological and not just pragmatic center-right Congress. And this directly impacts the government’s relationship and what the government is able to approve.”
In practice, this means that any president will have less room for maneuver to implement his economic agenda.
The fiscal problem remains on the table
In addition to the slowdown expected for 2027, the next government will inherit a discussion that crosses different administrations, based on the sustainability of public accounts.
According to Scalet, Brazil currently lives with a structural imbalance that will require corrections in the coming years.
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“When you do the mathematics of debt sustainability in the medium term, you would need to have at least a 2.5% surplus. So you have about 3 percentage points of GDP that we need to either cut spending or increase revenue, or probably a mix of both.”
The challenge is worsened by the high degree of rigidity in the Budget.
“When you look at a budget with more than 90% fixed, you wonder how to cut spending or increase revenue on a scale like this. It’s a discussion that will accompany any government.”
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Neither Lula nor Flávio will escape the adjustment
Furthermore, the perception is that the electoral result does not change the nature of the economic problems that the country will have to face.
Regardless of who wins the dispute, the next president will find an economy that tends to grow less, a still high interest rate and a market attentive to the trajectory of public debt.
For Scalet, the main debate in the first months of the next term will be the government’s ability to convince investors, companies and consumers that there is a credible strategy to stabilize public accounts.
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“It will matter what the promise is and what the ability to deliver on that promise is. The market will look at what is credible and what is just talk. This goes for any president.”
According to him, a consistent fiscal adjustment could open space for a drop in interest rates and an improvement in economic expectations. Without this, the trend is for weaker growth and more resilient inflation.
“If you make the fiscal adjustment, inflation expectations may fall and the Central Bank may cut interest rates. If you don’t, the economy will continue to live with higher interest rates for longer.”
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The risk can come from outside
Experts highlight that the domestic scenario will not be the only determining factor for the next government. External issues, such as United States monetary policy, the behavior of the dollar, geopolitical conflicts and the global flow of capital to emerging markets should also influence the performance of the Brazilian economy.
“There is one thing that is perhaps more important than all of this: what global perception will be like for emerging markets. We are talking about the war in Iran, midterm elections in the United States and American monetary policy. Brazilian assets have varied much more due to international factors than domestic ones.”
Analysts’ assessment is that the 2026 election could be fought under a feeling of economic improvement. The winner’s challenge will be to transform this perception into sustainable growth after the electoral stimuli leave the scene.
