The Genial/Quaest survey that will be released on Wednesday (10) should offer the first signs of how the electorate reacted to a succession of events that changed the scenario of the presidential race in recent weeks.
Among them are the rapprochement between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and the President of the United States, Donald Trump, the repercussion of the Master Case and the approval of the PEC that foresees the end of the 6×1 scale in the Chamber of Deputies.
The interviews began on Friday (5) and concluded this Monday (8). In total, 2,004 voters respond to a questionnaire with 114 questions that assess voting intention, rejection, knowledge of the candidates and perception of topics that have come to dominate the political debate since May.
Although the survey was not designed exclusively to measure these episodes, the moment of collection turns the survey into one of the main thermometers to assess whether there were changes in voter behavior after the escalation of the political dispute between the government and opposition.
The survey is the first carried out after Flávio Bolsonaro’s trip to the United States and the senator’s meeting with Donald Trump at the White House.
Days after the meeting, the American government announced the classification of the PCC and Red Command as terrorist organizations and began discussing new commercial measures against Brazil.
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The senator’s team is betting that the public security agenda will strengthen his candidacy among conservative voters. Allies of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) are trying to associate rapprochement with Washington with risks to national sovereignty and the Brazilian economy.
The results of the survey may indicate which of these narratives found greater resonance among voters.
Master case no no radar
The survey could also serve as guidance for Flávio’s team, which is still assessing the depth of the image crisis caused by his proximity to former banker Daniel Vorcaro.
One of the questions directly questions the senator’s involvement with the former banker: “Do you believe that Flávio Bolsonaro didn’t know that Vorcaro was involved in corruption?” Another, in turn, tries to capture the level of concern among Brazilians about the possibility of new tariffs: “Do you believe that new tariffs will harm you and your family?”
The inclusion of the subject comes after successive surveys showed a drop in Flávio’s electoral performance since the release of the audios involving the founder of Banco Master.
For members of the PL campaign, the new round will help measure whether the episode continues to produce effects or whether the impact has already begun to lose strength among the electorate.
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The last edition, , showed stability in President Lula’s leadership, with 39%, and a retraction by Flávio, with 33%, in the first round. The survey, however, showed a tight scenario in the second round: Lula appeared numerically ahead of Flávio, with 42% against 41%.
6×1 scale may also appear in numbers
The collection also takes place a few days after the approval, by the Chamber of Deputies, of the proposal that reduces the weekly working hours and abolishes the 6×1 scale.
Even without direct questions on the topic, political strategists assess that the survey can indirectly capture possible gains for the government if the measure has been incorporated by voters as an achievement associated with the government camp.
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In recent weeks, the dispute over the political authorship of the proposal has become one of the main clashes between government and opposition on social media and for presidential campaigns, which are trying to capture the issue for electoral gains.
Tariffs and savings enter the research
The survey also seeks to measure Brazilians’ perception of the possible economic impacts of trade tensions with the United States.
One of the questions directly asks whether respondents believe that new American tariffs could harm their families. Last week, the United States suggested the imposition of new trade barriers on Brazilian products, which became part of the internal political debate.
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