The new round of the Genial/Quaest survey, released this Wednesday (10), showed that the advantage of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), in the scenario of a possible second round with Flávio Bolsonaro, which was just one point in the April round, reached six points.
If until a few months ago the main mission of the campaign was to consolidate the transfer of votes for Jair Bolsonaro, now the challenge has become to recover voters who moved away from the candidacy and rebuild bridges with more moderate segments of the electorate.
The assessment was made by political scientist Leopoldo Vieira, CEO of Idealpolitik, during his participation in Mapa de Risco, an InfoMoney policy program this Friday (12). For him, the senator’s recent deterioration in the polls affected precisely a decisive part of the presidential dispute, the independent voters, who are not part of the hard core of PT or Bolsonarism.
For the analyst, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro continues to be the main name on the right in the dispute against Lula, but he will need to make important adjustments in the campaign to return to growth.
Defensive mode
The first step, according to the analyst, is to prevent the electoral debate from continuing to revolve around Banco Master.
For Leopoldo, a presidential candidacy cannot sustain competitiveness for a long time when it is constantly reacting to a crisis. Therefore, the tendency is for the campaign to try to put broader themes back at the center of the discussion, especially the economy, health, public safety and cost of living.
The strategy has already begun to appear in recent weeks, when Flávio began to focus his statements on proposals for the country and less on responses to the Vorcaro case.
“A presidential candidacy cannot survive for long discussing just one crisis. It needs to present an agenda again, discuss the country’s concrete problems again and build a narrative about the future.”
Win back the voter
For Leopoldo, the main loss of the candidacy did not occur among traditional Bolsonarists, which leaves the senator in a slightly more comfortable scenario.
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“The most important dehydration did not happen at the base. It happened in that voter who is not a PT member, but is also not a card-carrying Bolsonaro supporter”, he observed during the program. It is precisely this group that usually defines close elections.
According to the political scientist, the candidacy grew initially driven by polarization and the transfer of support from Jair Bolsonaro. But victory requires something beyond the loyalty of the base. It depends on the ability to convince voters who do not yet have an emotional connection with the candidacy.
Contain rejection
Another point highlighted by Leopoldo is that the campaign’s priority may not be to immediately increase voting intentions. Before that, it will be necessary to stop the deterioration of the senator’s image.
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“The priority today is not to win new voters. It is to prevent rejection from continuing to grow.”
The logic is similar to that observed in campaigns facing crises, in which it is necessary to first stabilize the scenario, then expand support again. This explains why members of Flávio’s environment have shown increasing concern about rejection indicators.
More than the distance to Lula, what worries strategists is the possibility of the negative image being consolidated among moderate voters.
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Balancing Bolsonaro and the center
Perhaps the biggest challenge of the campaign, for the analyst, lies precisely in the coexistence between two apparently contradictory needs.
On the one hand, Flávio needs to keep the Bolsonarist base mobilized that made him the main right-wing candidate. On the other hand, it needs to expand its reach among sectors that reject more radicalized discourses.
“You need, at the same time, to mobilize a more ideological base and add a decisive percentage of votes in an electorate that rejects exactly this type of signaling,” stated Leopoldo.
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The strategy, however, is not simple. An excessive movement towards the center could displease the militants. Reinforcing the Bolsonarist identity could make it difficult to win over new voters.
Ability to govern
If the first phase of the campaign was marked by the consolidation of the candidacy within the right, the next one tends to be dominated by the ability to govern.
According to the analyst, Flávio will need to present answers to topics such as tax reform, public accounts, economic growth, security and the functioning of the State. The challenge is particularly relevant because the 2026 election takes place in a different environment than that of 2018, when Jair Bolsonaro managed to lead the campaign to victory without a concrete government plan.
Today, Congress has more power over the Budget, fiscal discussions have gained centrality and the market is closely following the candidates’ economic plans. In this context, it is not enough to simply represent the opposition to the Lula government.
For the analyst, it is necessary to convince voters that there is a viable project to manage the country.
