Vitélio Brustolin, professor at UFF and researcher at Harvard, assessed the Hour H the provisional agreement signed between the United States and Iran, classifying the document as something already structured to be broken.
According to the expert, the memorandum contains 14 points and provides for the negotiation of a final agreement within 60 days, with an additional clause that allows the deadline to be extended if the parties do not reach a consensus.
Agreement “made to be broken”
For Brustolin, the document represents, in practice, a rather than a solid commitment.
“The fact is that this memo is made to be broken,” said the researcher.
He highlighted that maintaining the status quo is, strategically, a victory for Iran, since the Strait of Hormuz was already open before the attacks by the United States and Israel, and any new breakdown in negotiations, according to him, could directly affect the closure of the Strait, even without direct involvement of Israel or Hezbollah in the negotiations.
Brustolin also stressed that the conflict should always have been centered on, and not just the Strait of Hormuz.
“The war was supposed to be about Iran’s nuclear program,” he said.
He recalled that, at the G7, leaders demanded from Donald Trump that negotiations also cover financing for groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Houthis, in addition to the Iranian drone program.
In the researcher’s assessment, Trump is trying to close the deal at any cost for internal electoral reasons, aiming for the November elections.
Netanyahu as main political target
Asked about the growing tensions between the United States and Israel, Brustolin pointed out that Benjamin Netanyahu would be prioritizing his personal interests over those of Israel.
The researcher recalled that Netanyahu faces four charges of corruption, in addition to being held responsible for failing to prevent the attacks of October 7, 2023, and is also the target of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.
Given this scenario, the expert was categorical in stating that, if the agreement is not fulfilled, Netanyahu will be the main political loser.
“The one who should pay if the agreement is not fulfilled is Netanyahu. Trump needs someone to blame,” he said.
Brustolin added that neither Israel nor Hezbollah participated in negotiating the memorandum, and that Hezbollah is historically known for not respecting UN resolutions.
Role of Europeans and the G7
Regarding the role of Western allies in the G7, Brustolin highlighted that there are negotiations behind the scenes.
Unlike the previous meeting, held in Canada, in which the United States refused to reiterate support for Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and openly condemn Russia, this time there was a joint statement condemning Russia.
Trump even mentioned the possibility of reimposing sanctions on Russian oil.
The researcher also pointed out that European countries, France and the United Kingdom in particular, have more minesweeper ships than the United States in the region and could contribute to a possible operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, if Iran does not fulfill its part of the agreement.
In Brustolin’s assessment, the Europeans also offer this assistance because, once the strait issue is resolved, they will be able to pressure Trump more effectively to support Ukraine in the conflict against Russia.
