Report points to an increase in 2026 for the IPCA (5.33%) and Selic (14.00%); Expectations for GDP also rose to 1.98%
The Central Bank released, this Monday (June 22, 2026), the Focus Report, with data collected until June 19. The survey, which brings together projections from the country’s main financial institutions, indicates a worsening expectations for inflation in 2026 and a upward revision of estimates for the economy’s basic interest rates.
The main highlight is the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) – an index that measures the variation in prices of goods and services consumed by Brazilian families – whose projection for 2026 increased for the 15th consecutive week. It went from 5.30% in the previous week to 5.33% in the current reading. 4 weeks ago, the expectation was 5.04%. Here is it (PDF – 573 kB).
In line with higher inflation projections, analysts also raised, for the 3rd week in a row, the estimate for the Selic rate at the end of 2026. The expectation for the economy’s basic interest rates rose from 13.75% to 14.00% per year. A month ago, the market projected a rate of 13.25%.
The sequence of upward revisions indicates that financial agents have been expecting more persistent inflation and further away from the target pursued by the monetary authority. In general, unanchored expectations make the monetary authority’s work more difficult and increase the perception that interest rates will need to remain high for longer.
Maintaining high interest rates tends to make credit more expensive and discourage consumption and investment, but it is also seen by the market as a necessary instrument to contain inflation and help bring it back to the target.
GDP MAINTAINS HIGH TRAJECTORY
Projections for economic activity also showed a marginal improvement. The estimate for GDP growth in 2026 was revised from 1.96% to 1.98%, marking the fifth consecutive weekly increase. Four weeks ago, the projection was 1.89%.
STABLE EXCHANGE EXCHANGE
In the foreign exchange market, expectations for the dollar at the end of 2026 remained at R$ 5.20 for the 2nd consecutive period. Despite the stability in the weekly comparison, the projection still exceeds the R$5.17 registered 4 weeks ago.
THE FOCUS BULLETIN
Published weekly by the Central Bank, the report brings together the expectations of more than 100 financial institutions for the main indicators of the Brazilian economy.
