On a path of complete destabilization re-enters the , as the fragile interim between and was blown up, just two weeks after it was signed.
New blow to navigation and alarm to international forces
The British Maritime Safety Center (UKMTO) announced that a tanker was attacked by a missile on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz, the planet’s most critical energy artery. The attack caused damage to the ship’s bridge, but all crew are safe. The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center (JMIC), which is run by the international naval coalition that protects shipping in the region, immediately upgraded its security threat level.
This attack follows a similar one, on a cargo ship, which triggered the current cycle of violence. Iran is attempting to reassert absolute control over the sea passage, which had begun to reopen in the past two weeks after months of blockade.
Although Tehran did not immediately comment on the specific attacks, Iranian state television reported that the Revolutionary Guards had fired “warning shots” at ships that attempted to pass through unauthorized channels, forcing other ships to now seek “Iranian permits” to cross the Straits.
Cross-accusations and military reprisals
Earlier, Iran’s Foreign Ministry announced that it had launched “defensive” strikes against military targets linked to the US. Meanwhile, Bahrain, which hosts the regional headquarters of the US Navy, reported an attack by an Iranian drone.
U.S. strikes Iran in response to an attack on a commercial ship moving through the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM confirms.
“The unwarranted aggression against commercial shipping by Iranian forces clearly violated the ceasefire.”
“The U.S. military remains present and vigilant to…
— Fox News (@FoxNews)
Washington said that overnight in response to previous provocations, with Tehran responding on Saturday with strikes against forces linked to the US military.
The “thorn” of Lebanon and the battle for the Straits
Iran accuses the US of failing to honor the interim deal, focusing mainly on its failure to secure a promised ceasefire in Lebanon, where US ally Israel invaded in March against Hezbollah. Although announced, the impact is limited: Israel refuses to withdraw from the territories it occupied and Hezbollah refuses to disarm.
On Saturday, Lebanese state television broadcast an Israeli drone strike in the Nabatieh region. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem called the agreement “invalid” and a product of capitulation, while Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, accused the US of violating the cooperation memorandum by supporting proxy forces.
Harsh ultimatum from JD Vance: “Violence will be met with violence”
Washington’s reaction was immediate and in particularly high tones. US Vice President Jay D. Vance, who also serves as Donald Trump’s chief negotiator on the crisis, made it clear that the US side has adhered to the agreement and that Iran bears sole responsibility for the rekindling of the conflict.
Iran signed a ceasefire agreement. We have honored it. If they have disagreements about how the MOU is being applied, they can pick up the phone.
But violence will be met with violence.
— JD Vance (@JDVance)
“Iran has signed a ceasefire agreement. We honored her. If they have disagreements about the implementation of the Memorandum, they can pick up the phone. But violence will be met with violence,” Vance wrote on Platform X (formerly Twitter).
The global oil market is on hold
The new escalation is unfolding over the weekend, with markets closed, allowing both sides to adopt tough rhetoric without an immediate impact on oil prices. Over the past two weeks, the weekend war yachts have subsided by Monday, allowing oil prices to record declines near pre-war levels (falling 3% on Friday).
However, hundreds of ships remain stranded in the Gulf. Fully defusing the global energy crisis requires safe two-way transit. The US is promoting a southern sea lane along the coast of Oman, while Iran is demanding use of the northern route under its control, also aiming to impose transit fees.
“Any violation of Iran’s navigation instructions will be dealt with decisively,” warned Ebrahim Azizi, head of Iran’s parliament’s national security committee, making it clear that the battle for international shipping has only just begun.
