The application that Meta is creating, called Arenacould allow people to place bets on virtually anything, with the aim of capitalizing on the growth of prediction markets as a business. Internally, Meta executives stated that Arena is different from Polymarket and Kalshi — which accept real money bets — because it will be based on “points” similar to those in video games.
But Zuckerberg has made Arena a top priority, and his plans for the app go beyond what was previously known. He asked Meta executives to talk to Polymarket and Kalshi, although it is not yet clear how any partnerships would work, said the three employees, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they have signed confidentiality agreements.
Zuckerberg’s target audience for Arena is the 18 to 34 years oldthe employees added, and Meta wants to achieve at least 100 million monthly active “predictors” in the app. The Arena is being positioned as a space where people can bet on sports, culture, entertainment, politics and finance against friends and family. Executives called it an app “made for everyone,” they said.
“We believe prediction markets are one of the most exciting new types of content,” wrote Ime Archibong, Meta’s vice president of product responsible for the Arena initiative, in an internal post last month introducing the app, which was passed along to New York Times. “With the right formats, social conversation is the reward as people try to show their friends how good they are at predicting things.”
Meta, Polymarket and Kalshi declined to comment.
Zuckerberg’s move to potentially approach Polymarket and Kalshi reveals his appetite for risk as he studies emerging digital behaviors and looks for ways to incorporate them into Meta’s products — which include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp. He and his executives closely monitor other companies that could become competitors, either to learn from them or, in the case of prediction markets, to simply copy them.
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But prediction markets have faced increasing legal scrutiny for creating opportunities for people to use privileged information to profit. In April, federal prosecutors in New York indicted a member of US Special Forces for using confidential information to place bets on the secret plan to capture Nicolás Maduro, president of Venezuela. The soldier would have profited more than US$ 400 mil betting on the operation, according to prosecutors.
On Tuesday, when the Times first published Meta’s plans for Arena, Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, stated that the Silicon Valley company’s business model was “profit from addictionHe called for support for some of his legislative initiatives on online child safety and regulation of prediction markets.
On Friday, more than a dozen Democratic senators sent a letter to the Senate financial services subcommittee. In the letter, parliamentarians asked that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — the federal agency responsible for supervising prediction markets — was prevented from interfering in state oversight of the platforms.
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Arena is being tested internally and may not be released, Meta officials said. If it launches, it will initially be a standalone app to gauge user interest. Meta plans to eventually integrate parts of Arena into Facebook and Messenger, including prediction bets in group chats, the Reels video product, ephemeral “Stories” and the popular Facebook News Feed, they said.
It is not yet clear whether Arena will incorporate real money betting. But Zuckerberg believes staking behavior could increase activity on Meta’s apps. Users can engage in conversations and debates on Facebook and Messenger about the bets, or share more content when they get their predictions right. Meta can also incorporate gamification elements, such as rankings, putting users in competition with each other.
The application generated debate among Meta employees. In internal forums and private chats, some workers said the company was crossing an ethical line by offering prediction markets on the world’s largest social network, which could pave the way for other forms of gambling. Others said they felt comfortable with the project because it did not involve real money gambling, at least in its current form.
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“When markets are integrated into a personalized feed, they no longer seem like something for traders“, wrote Archibong. “They become part of the conversation, linked to memes, moments and what people are paying attention to. Betting stops being about analysis and becomes about saying, ‘This is what I think.’”
Archibong added: “Influencers will generate volume, and culture will generate attention.” His post had a subtitle that explained the logic behind Arena: “Betting like talking.”
c.2026 The New York Times Company
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